Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 23/10, 20:00

Prediction: VV Eemdijk vs Sportlust '46

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

VV Eemdijk1.17

Sportlust '462.6

1X2

15% 16% 68%

VV Eemdijk Draw Sportlust '46

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

VV Eemdijk 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLLLLLDW

Sportlust '46 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWWLDW

Head-to-head

VV Eemdijk 0–2 Sportlust '46 (2 last)

Sportlust '464-2VV Eemdijk
VV Eemdijk1-2Sportlust '46

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VV Eemdijk 1459 · Sportlust '46 1543

	VV Eemdijk	Draw	Sportlust '46
Our model	14%	18%	67%
Market	16%	14%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportlust '46 (rating 1459 vs 1543).
H2H favours Sportlust '46: 2-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VV Eemdijk	Sportlust '46
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 3.1	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 3	– / –
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 1	– / –

Odds Bet365

15.50

X6.25

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.80

2 (-1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:24 +47’	5.50	6.25	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · VV Eemdijk 0–0–2 Sportlust '46

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Sportlust '46	4-2 HT 1-0	VV Eemdijk
16/08/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	VV Eemdijk	1-2 HT 0-1	Sportlust '46

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ACV Assen	10	7	2	1	26	10	23
2	VV Scherpenzeel	10	7	2	1	18	10	23
3	Harkemase Boys	10	7	2	1	20	14	23
4	Excelsior '31	10	7	1	2	28	9	22
5	Genemuiden	10	7	0	3	22	15	21
6	TEC	10	6	2	2	29	17	20
7	Sportlust '46	10	5	4	1	18	14	19
8	Purmersteijn	10	5	3	2	19	12	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	10	4	2	4	22	21	14
10	Hoogeveen	10	4	1	5	24	23	13
11	ADO '20	10	4	1	5	19	21	13
12	USV Hercules	10	3	1	6	12	22	10
13	Staphorst	10	2	3	5	16	21	9
14	VV Eemdijk	9	2	1	6	13	28	7
15	DVS'33 Ermelo	10	1	3	6	13	19	6
16	DOVO	10	1	2	7	12	25	5
17	HVV Hollandia	9	1	1	7	16	27	4
18	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	10	0	1	9	9	28	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VV Eemdijk	Sportlust '46
USV Hercules	2-0 W	0-0 D
DVS'33 Ermelo	2-2 D	2-1 W
TEC	2-7 L	2-1 W
Sparta Nijkerk	0-4 L	3-3 D
ADO '20	4-1 W	2-1 W
Excelsior '31	0-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sportlust '46 (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VV Eemdijk

LLWLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/10	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
26/09	TEC Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-4	2-7	–	–	L
19/09	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-4	–	–	L
12/09	ACV Assen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	1-5	3	3	L
05/09	Harkemase Boys Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
23/05	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-3	–	–	L

Sportlust '46

DDWDWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	HVV Hollandia Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	4-2	–	–	W
05/09	Hoogeveen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
29/08	TEC Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VV Eemdijk vs Sportlust '46?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sportlust '46 win (68%). Probabilities: VV Eemdijk 15%, draw 16%, Sportlust '46 68%.

How many goals are expected in VV Eemdijk vs Sportlust '46?

The model expects 3.77 goals (VV Eemdijk 1.17 · Sportlust '46 2.6), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in VV Eemdijk vs Sportlust '46?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.