Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 08/11, 14:00

Prediction: Purmersteijn vs HVV Hollandia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

Purmersteijn2.09

HVV Hollandia1.69

1X2

47% 22% 31%

Purmersteijn Draw HVV Hollandia

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Purmersteijn 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLDWLWDWL

HVV Hollandia 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLLWD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Purmersteijn 1534 · HVV Hollandia 1419

	Purmersteijn	Draw	HVV Hollandia
Our model	47%	23%	31%
Market	47%	21%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Purmersteijn (rating 1534 vs 1419).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Purmersteijn	HVV Hollandia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.8 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.4 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 6.5	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X4.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +16’	1.90	4.20	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VV Scherpenzeel	12	8	3	1	23	13	27
2	Harkemase Boys	11	8	2	1	24	14	26
3	ACV Assen	11	7	3	1	27	11	24
4	TEC	11	7	2	2	34	19	23
5	Excelsior '31	11	7	1	3	28	13	22
6	Genemuiden	11	7	1	3	24	17	22
7	Sportlust '46	11	5	4	2	19	17	19
8	Purmersteijn	11	5	3	3	21	17	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	11	5	2	4	24	21	17
10	ADO '20	11	4	2	5	21	23	14
11	Hoogeveen	11	4	1	6	24	25	13
12	USV Hercules	11	4	1	6	16	23	13
13	VV Eemdijk	11	4	1	6	19	30	13
14	DVS'33 Ermelo	12	2	3	7	18	25	9
15	Staphorst	12	2	3	7	18	28	9
16	DOVO	11	1	3	7	13	26	6
17	HVV Hollandia	10	1	2	7	18	29	5
18	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	11	0	1	10	12	32	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Purmersteijn	HVV Hollandia
TEC	2-5 L	4-5 L
Sparta Nijkerk	3-0 W	5-5 D
ACV Assen	1-1 D	0-2 L
Harkemase Boys	4-2 W	1-2 L
Sportlust '46	1-1 D	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Purmersteijn (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Purmersteijn

DWLDWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	TEC Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
17/10	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
10/10	ACV Assen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Harkemase Boys Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	4-2	–	–	W
26/09	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
12/09	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
30/08	Hoogeveen Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	3-1	7	3	W
22/08	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

HVV Hollandia

LLDLLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-2	2	4	D
17/10	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/10	Staphorst Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	2-4	–	–	L
27/09	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-3	6	8	L
19/09	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	2-4	–	–	L
06/09	TEC Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-3	4-5	–	–	L
29/08	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-2	5-5	–	–	D
22/08	ACV Assen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	Harkemase Boys Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Purmersteijn vs HVV Hollandia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Purmersteijn win (47%). Probabilities: Purmersteijn 47%, draw 22%, HVV Hollandia 31%.

How many goals are expected in Purmersteijn vs HVV Hollandia?

The model expects 3.78 goals (Purmersteijn 2.09 · HVV Hollandia 1.69), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Purmersteijn vs HVV Hollandia?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.