Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 08/11, 14:00

Prediction: Hoogeveen vs TEC

Team pages: Hoogeveen · TEC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.29Total

Hoogeveen1.7

TEC2.59

1X2

24% 20% 56%

Hoogeveen Draw TEC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Hoogeveen 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWWLLL

TEC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Hoogeveen 1–1 TEC (2 last)

TEC0-3Hoogeveen
Hoogeveen2-3TEC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hoogeveen 1481 · TEC 1574

	Hoogeveen	Draw	TEC
Our model	24%	20%	56%
Market	24%	20%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 4.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TEC (rating 1481 vs 1574).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hoogeveen	TEC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.2	3.4 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	1.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.2	4 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.75

X4.50

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +8’	3.75	4.50	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hoogeveen 1–0–1 TEC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	TEC	0-3 HT 0-1	Hoogeveen
28/09/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Hoogeveen	2-3 HT 1-0	TEC

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VV Scherpenzeel	12	8	3	1	23	13	27
2	Harkemase Boys	11	8	2	1	24	14	26
3	ACV Assen	11	7	3	1	27	11	24
4	TEC	11	7	2	2	34	19	23
5	Excelsior '31	11	7	1	3	28	13	22
6	Genemuiden	11	7	1	3	24	17	22
7	Sportlust '46	11	5	4	2	19	17	19
8	Purmersteijn	11	5	3	3	21	17	18
9	Sparta Nijkerk	11	5	2	4	24	21	17
10	ADO '20	11	4	2	5	21	23	14
11	Hoogeveen	11	4	1	6	24	25	13
12	USV Hercules	11	4	1	6	16	23	13
13	VV Eemdijk	11	4	1	6	19	30	13
14	DVS'33 Ermelo	12	2	3	7	18	25	9
15	Staphorst	12	2	3	7	18	28	9
16	DOVO	11	1	3	7	13	26	6
17	HVV Hollandia	10	1	2	7	18	29	5
18	SV Zwaluwen Wierden	11	0	1	10	12	32	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hoogeveen	TEC
Sparta Nijkerk	0-2 L	3-1 W
Sportlust '46	2-2 D	1-2 L
Purmersteijn	1-3 L	5-2 W
VV Scherpenzeel	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: TEC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hoogeveen

LLDWLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	ACV Assen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-4	3	2	L
10/10	Harkemase Boys Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-2	0	2	L
03/10	Genemuiden Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	5-3	1	3	W
27/09	ADO '20 Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	5-1	5	2	W
19/09	Excelsior '31 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
12/09	DOVO Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
05/09	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
22/08	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

TEC

WLWDWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Purmersteijn Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	5-2	–	–	W
17/10	VV Scherpenzeel Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
10/10	SV Zwaluwen Wierden Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Staphorst Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
26/09	VV Eemdijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	4-1	7-2	–	–	W
20/09	USV Hercules Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	4-2	7	3	W
12/09	DVS'33 Ermelo Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	4-4	–	–	D
06/09	HVV Hollandia Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-1	5-4	–	–	W
29/08	Sportlust '46 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	Sparta Nijkerk Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hoogeveen vs TEC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an TEC win (56%). Probabilities: Hoogeveen 24%, draw 20%, TEC 56%.

How many goals are expected in Hoogeveen vs TEC?

The model expects 4.29 goals (Hoogeveen 1.7 · TEC 2.59), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hoogeveen vs TEC?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.