Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 07/11, 18:00

Prediction: VV Dongen vs Noordwijk

Team pages: VV Dongen · Noordwijk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.83Total

VV Dongen1.48

Noordwijk2.35

1X2

23% 20% 56%

VV Dongen Draw Noordwijk

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

VV Dongen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Noordwijk 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VV Dongen 1474 · Noordwijk 1582

	VV Dongen	Draw	Noordwijk
Our model	23%	21%	56%
Market	23%	20%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.83 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Noordwijk (rating 1474 vs 1582).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VV Dongen	Noordwijk
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.5	2.3 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.5	1.3 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.9	3.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.50

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.90

2 (-1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 3.80▼	Pinn 4.61 ★
X	5.50 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50
2	1.28 → 1.57▲	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:28 +7’	6.50	5.50	1.28
06:26 +1’	5.50▼	5.25▼	1.33▲
11:56 +2’	3.80▼	4.50▼	1.57▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:12 +15’	5.06	4.54	1.42
09:25 +33’	5.28▲	4.63▲	1.40▼
14:00 +68’	4.61▼	4.29▼	1.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Noordwijk	11	9	1	1	25	4	28
2	FC Lisse	11	9	1	1	26	8	28
3	Excelsior Maassluis	11	8	2	1	22	7	26
4	Rijnvogels	11	7	2	2	29	13	23
5	RKSV UDI '19	11	6	2	3	22	12	20
6	Zwaluwen	11	6	1	4	15	16	19
7	SV Poortugaal	11	6	0	5	15	16	18
8	VV Dongen	11	5	1	5	24	25	16
9	VV Goes	11	4	2	5	21	28	14
10	VV Gemert	10	3	4	3	14	17	13
11	Blauw Geel '38	11	3	3	5	15	17	12
12	TOGB	11	3	3	5	19	25	12
13	VV UNA	11	2	5	4	15	17	11
14	Roosendaal	10	3	1	6	18	23	10
15	Groene Ster	11	2	3	6	15	27	9
16	VVSB	11	2	2	7	15	25	8
17	Achilles Veen	11	2	0	9	9	26	6
18	EVV Echt	11	0	3	8	11	24	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VV Dongen	Noordwijk
VV Goes	2-3 L	3-2 W
Rijnvogels	2-5 L	3-0 W
VV Gemert	3-2 W	4-0 W
EVV Echt	3-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Noordwijk (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VV Dongen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	0-4	0	3	L
18/10	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
11/10	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-4	6	4	L
03/10	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	4-0	3	4	W
27/09	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-3	1-3	4	0	L
13/09	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
05/09	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	2-5	6	1	L
30/08	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
23/08	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-2	–	–	W

Noordwijk

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	3-2	–	–	W
17/10	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
10/10	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
03/10	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
26/09	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/09	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
05/09	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
29/08	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VV Dongen vs Noordwijk?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Noordwijk win (56%). Probabilities: VV Dongen 23%, draw 20%, Noordwijk 56%.

How many goals are expected in VV Dongen vs Noordwijk?

The model expects 3.83 goals (VV Dongen 1.48 · Noordwijk 2.35), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in VV Dongen vs Noordwijk?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.