Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 07/11, 19:00

Prediction: VV Gemert vs Excelsior Maassluis

Team pages: VV Gemert · Excelsior Maassluis

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

VV Gemert1.28

Excelsior Maassluis1.7

1X2

29% 24% 47%

VV Gemert Draw Excelsior Maassluis

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

VV Gemert 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDWDWLLW

Excelsior Maassluis 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWWWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VV Gemert 1532 · Excelsior Maassluis 1578

	VV Gemert	Draw	Excelsior Maassluis
Our model	28%	26%	46%
Market	30%	22%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excelsior Maassluis (rating 1532 vs 1578).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VV Gemert	Excelsior Maassluis
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	2.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	1.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X4.10

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 2.07 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +6’	3.00	4.10	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:04 +12’	2.98	3.34	2.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Noordwijk	11	9	1	1	25	4	28
2	FC Lisse	11	9	1	1	26	8	28
3	Excelsior Maassluis	11	8	2	1	22	7	26
4	Rijnvogels	11	7	2	2	29	13	23
5	RKSV UDI '19	11	6	2	3	22	12	20
6	Zwaluwen	11	6	1	4	15	16	19
7	SV Poortugaal	11	6	0	5	15	16	18
8	VV Dongen	11	5	1	5	24	25	16
9	VV Goes	11	4	2	5	21	28	14
10	VV Gemert	10	3	4	3	14	17	13
11	Blauw Geel '38	11	3	3	5	15	17	12
12	TOGB	11	3	3	5	19	25	12
13	VV UNA	11	2	5	4	15	17	11
14	Roosendaal	10	3	1	6	18	23	10
15	Groene Ster	11	2	3	6	15	27	9
16	VVSB	11	2	2	7	15	25	8
17	Achilles Veen	11	2	0	9	9	26	6
18	EVV Echt	11	0	3	8	11	24	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VV Gemert	Excelsior Maassluis
Achilles Veen	2-0 W	3-2 W
Noordwijk	0-4 L	0-0 D
FC Lisse	0-2 L	0-1 L
Groene Ster	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Excelsior Maassluis (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VV Gemert

DDLDWDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
10/10	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
04/10	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
27/09	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-1	9	4	W
20/09	RKSV UDI '19 Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
12/09	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
30/08	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-3	3	2	L
23/08	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-2	–	–	D

Excelsior Maassluis

WLDWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
17/10	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/10	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-0	3	1	W
03/10	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
26/09	Blauw Geel '38 Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/09	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
12/09	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
05/09	Noordwijk Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
29/08	FC Lisse Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Groene Ster Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VV Gemert vs Excelsior Maassluis?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Excelsior Maassluis win (47%). Probabilities: VV Gemert 29%, draw 24%, Excelsior Maassluis 47%.

How many goals are expected in VV Gemert vs Excelsior Maassluis?

The model expects 2.98 goals (VV Gemert 1.28 · Excelsior Maassluis 1.7), with a 57% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in VV Gemert vs Excelsior Maassluis?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.