Football · Netherlands Derde Divisie · 08/11, 14:00

Prediction: Blauw Geel '38 vs RKSV UDI '19

Team pages: Blauw Geel '38 · RKSV UDI '19

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Blauw Geel '381.66

RKSV UDI '191.68

1X2

38% 24% 39%

Blauw Geel '38 Draw RKSV UDI '19

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Blauw Geel '38 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWWLDWLL

RKSV UDI '19 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLWWWL

Head-to-head

Blauw Geel '38 3–1 RKSV UDI '19 (4 last)

RKSV UDI '191-3Blauw Geel '38
Blauw Geel '380-1RKSV UDI '19
Blauw Geel '381-0RKSV UDI '19
RKSV UDI '191-2Blauw Geel '38

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blauw Geel '38 1487 · RKSV UDI '19 1531

	Blauw Geel '38	Draw	RKSV UDI '19
Our model	37%	25%	38%
Market	38%	23%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RKSV UDI '19 (rating 1487 vs 1531).
H2H favours Blauw Geel '38: 3-0-1.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blauw Geel '38	RKSV UDI '19
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	3.3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X4.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:32 +9’	2.35	4.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blauw Geel '38 3–0–1 RKSV UDI '19

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Netherlands Derde Divisie	RKSV UDI '19	1-3 HT 1-1	Blauw Geel '38
11/10/25 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Blauw Geel '38	0-1 HT 0-1	RKSV UDI '19
29/01/23 Netherlands Derde Divisie	Blauw Geel '38	1-0 HT 1-0	RKSV UDI '19
04/09/22 Netherlands Derde Divisie	RKSV UDI '19	1-2 HT 0-1	Blauw Geel '38

Standings · Netherlands Derde Divisie · Derde Divisie 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Noordwijk	11	9	1	1	25	4	28
2	FC Lisse	11	9	1	1	26	8	28
3	Excelsior Maassluis	11	8	2	1	22	7	26
4	Rijnvogels	11	7	2	2	29	13	23
5	RKSV UDI '19	11	6	2	3	22	12	20
6	Zwaluwen	11	6	1	4	15	16	19
7	SV Poortugaal	11	6	0	5	15	16	18
8	VV Dongen	11	5	1	5	24	25	16
9	VV Goes	11	4	2	5	21	28	14
10	VV Gemert	10	3	4	3	14	17	13
11	Blauw Geel '38	11	3	3	5	15	17	12
12	TOGB	11	3	3	5	19	25	12
13	VV UNA	11	2	5	4	15	17	11
14	Roosendaal	10	3	1	6	18	23	10
15	Groene Ster	11	2	3	6	15	27	9
16	VVSB	11	2	2	7	15	25	8
17	Achilles Veen	11	2	0	9	9	26	6
18	EVV Echt	11	0	3	8	11	24	3

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blauw Geel '38	RKSV UDI '19
TOGB	1-3 L	2-1 W
SV Poortugaal	1-3 L	2-3 L
VVSB	2-0 W	2-0 W
VV UNA	1-1 D	2-0 W
VV Dongen	3-1 W	4-0 W
VV Goes	2-2 D	4-0 W
Rijnvogels	0-0 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: RKSV UDI '19 (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Blauw Geel '38

DLDWWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
17/10	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	1-3	–	–	L
10/10	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
04/10	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
26/09	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-1	3-1	5	0	W
12/09	Roosendaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
06/09	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-1	2-2	8	6	D
29/08	Achilles Veen Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-2	2-3	–	–	L
23/08	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

RKSV UDI '19

WWLWDLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	SV Poortugaal Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
18/10	VV UNA Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	2-0	2	4	W
11/10	VV Dongen Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-0	4-0	8	4	W
04/10	VV Goes Netherlands Derde Divisie	2-0	4-0	4	3	W
27/09	Rijnvogels Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
20/09	VV Gemert Netherlands Derde Divisie	1-1	1-1	4	1	D
13/09	EVV Echt Netherlands Derde Divisie	3-0	4-1	12	1	W
05/09	Zwaluwen Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	TOGB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-1	2-1	9	2	W
22/08	VVSB Netherlands Derde Divisie	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blauw Geel '38 vs RKSV UDI '19?

According to our model, the most likely result is an RKSV UDI '19 win (39%). Probabilities: Blauw Geel '38 38%, draw 24%, RKSV UDI '19 39%.

How many goals are expected in Blauw Geel '38 vs RKSV UDI '19?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Blauw Geel '38 1.66 · RKSV UDI '19 1.68), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Blauw Geel '38 vs RKSV UDI '19?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.