Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 10/10, 20:00

Prediction: RFC Meux vs Union Rochefortoise

Team pages: RFC Meux · Union Rochefortoise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

RFC Meux1.45

Union Rochefortoise1.54

1X2

35% 26% 39%

RFC Meux Draw Union Rochefortoise

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

RFC Meux 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWWLWD

Union Rochefortoise 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWWLDDW

Head-to-head

RFC Meux 3–1 Union Rochefortoise (4 last)

RFC Meux3-0Union Rochefortoise
Union Rochefortoise0-1RFC Meux
RFC Meux0-1Union Rochefortoise
Union Rochefortoise0-3RFC Meux

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RFC Meux 1530 · Union Rochefortoise 1541

	RFC Meux	Draw	Union Rochefortoise
Our model	35%	27%	39%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours RFC Meux: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RFC Meux	Union Rochefortoise
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	2.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.2	1.6 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.50

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.92 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:59 +28’	2.55	3.50	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:53 +94’	2.92	3.36	2.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · RFC Meux 3–0–1 Union Rochefortoise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	RFC Meux	3-0 HT 1-0	Union Rochefortoise
21/03/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	0-1 HT 0-0	RFC Meux
13/12/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	RFC Meux	0-1 HT 0-0	Union Rochefortoise
04/10/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	0-3 HT 0-1	RFC Meux

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	7	5	1	1	15	5	16
2	RWD Molenbeek	7	5	1	1	11	6	16
3	Union Rochefortoise	7	4	2	1	14	7	14
4	Tubize	7	4	2	1	10	8	14
5	Union Saint Gilloise II	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
6	RAEC Mons	7	3	1	3	16	13	10
7	Sporting Charleroi U23	7	2	3	2	8	7	9
8	ROC Charleroi	7	2	2	3	9	16	8
9	Standard Liege II	7	2	1	4	8	6	7
10	RCS Onhaye	7	2	0	5	9	16	6
11	RSC Habay	7	1	2	4	5	10	5
12	FC Flenu	7	0	1	6	8	21	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RFC Meux	Union Rochefortoise
RCS Onhaye	2-1 W	1-2 L
RWD Molenbeek	0-1 L	1-1 D
Standard Liege II	1-0 W	1-0 W
Union Saint Gilloise II	2-1 W	2-0 W
Tubize	2-2 D	4-1 W
Excelsior Virton	0-2 L	3-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Rochefortoise (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RFC Meux

LDLDWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
26/09	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-1	6	4	W
19/09	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	7	0	L
13/09	FC Flenu Belgium First Amateur Division	3-0	4-1	2	5	W
06/09	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	2	6	W
29/08	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
26/08	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
10/05	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
03/05	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/04	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-2	6	3	L

Union Rochefortoise

WLLWWWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
30/09	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
19/09	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
12/09	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	4-1	9	5	W
29/08	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	4-2	4	5	W
26/08	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-0	4	8	W
10/05	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-3	2	5	L
03/05	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-3	3-5	2	2	L
25/04	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	4-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RFC Meux vs Union Rochefortoise?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Rochefortoise win (39%). Probabilities: RFC Meux 35%, draw 26%, Union Rochefortoise 39%.

How many goals are expected in RFC Meux vs Union Rochefortoise?

The model expects 3 goals (RFC Meux 1.45 · Union Rochefortoise 1.54), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in RFC Meux vs Union Rochefortoise?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.