Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 18/10, 15:00

Prediction: Royal Knokke vs KFC Merelbeke

Team pages: Royal Knokke · KFC Merelbeke

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Royal Knokke1.85

KFC Merelbeke1.44

1X2

46% 25% 29%

Royal Knokke Draw KFC Merelbeke

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Royal Knokke 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWDWL

KFC Merelbeke 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWWLWDDL

Head-to-head

Royal Knokke 3–1–0 KFC Merelbeke (4 last)

KFC Merelbeke2-3Royal Knokke
Royal Knokke2-0KFC Merelbeke
Royal Knokke3-2KFC Merelbeke
KFC Merelbeke1-1Royal Knokke

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Royal Knokke 1503 · KFC Merelbeke 1445

	Royal Knokke	Draw	KFC Merelbeke
Our model	46%	25%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Royal Knokke (rating 1503 vs 1445).
H2H favours Royal Knokke: 3-1-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Royal Knokke	KFC Merelbeke
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.95▲	Pinn 1.99
X	3.75 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.61
2	3.60 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.20 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:58 +21’	1.75	3.75	3.60
14:14 +11’	1.95▲	3.60▼	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:11 +7’	1.97	3.52	3.13
06:26 +52’	1.99▲	3.61▲	3.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Royal Knokke 3–1–0 KFC Merelbeke

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	KFC Merelbeke	2-3 HT 0-1	Royal Knokke
30/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Royal Knokke	2-0 HT 2-0	KFC Merelbeke
30/03/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Royal Knokke	3-2 HT 1-1	KFC Merelbeke
12/10/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	KFC Merelbeke	1-1 HT 0-1	Royal Knokke

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RWD Molenbeek	8	6	1	1	13	7	19
2	Union Rochefortoise	8	5	2	1	17	7	17
3	RFC Meux	8	5	1	2	15	8	16
4	Union Saint Gilloise II	8	4	2	2	15	10	14
5	Tubize	8	4	2	2	11	10	14
6	RAEC Mons	8	3	2	3	18	15	11
7	Standard Liege II	8	3	1	4	12	7	10
8	Sporting Charleroi U23	8	2	4	2	9	8	10
9	ROC Charleroi	8	2	3	3	10	17	9
10	RSC Habay	8	1	3	4	7	12	6
11	RCS Onhaye	8	2	0	6	10	20	6
12	FC Flenu	8	0	1	7	10	26	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Royal Knokke	KFC Merelbeke
KVC Houtvenne	0-2 L	2-1 W
Belisia Bilzen SV	3-2 W	0-1 L
Cercle Brugge Reserves	1-2 L	3-1 W
Tienen	2-0 W	0-0 D
KVK Ninove	4-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Royal Knokke (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Royal Knokke

WWWWLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
04/10	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	3-1	3-2	2	5	W
30/09	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
20/09	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	3-2	8	7	W
13/09	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
30/08	KSK Heist Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/04	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	3-2	11	6	W
19/04	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
11/04	KVK Ninove Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	4-0	8	3	W

KFC Merelbeke

WLLWWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	RFC Mandel Utd Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
04/10	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
30/09	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
20/09	KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
13/09	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
06/09	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
28/08	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-2	4	3	W
26/04	KVK Ninove Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	6	0	L
19/04	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
11/04	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	2-1	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Royal Knokke vs KFC Merelbeke?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Royal Knokke win (46%). Probabilities: Royal Knokke 46%, draw 25%, KFC Merelbeke 29%.

How many goals are expected in Royal Knokke vs KFC Merelbeke?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Royal Knokke 1.85 · KFC Merelbeke 1.44), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Royal Knokke vs KFC Merelbeke?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.