Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 17/10, 20:00

Prediction: KVV Thes Sport vs Cercle Brugge Reserves

Team pages: KVV Thes Sport · Cercle Brugge Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

KVV Thes Sport1.85

Cercle Brugge Reserves1.22

1X2

51% 24% 24%

KVV Thes Sport Draw Cercle Brugge Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

KVV Thes Sport 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWDLWDL

Cercle Brugge Reserves 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWLLLW

Head-to-head

KVV Thes Sport 2–2–0 Cercle Brugge Reserves (4 last)

Cercle Brugge Reserves1-1KVV Thes Sport
KVV Thes Sport1-1Cercle Brugge Reserves
KVV Thes Sport3-0Cercle Brugge Reserves
Cercle Brugge Reserves0-4KVV Thes Sport

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KVV Thes Sport 1507 · Cercle Brugge Reserves 1427

	KVV Thes Sport	Draw	Cercle Brugge Reserves
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KVV Thes Sport (rating 1507 vs 1427).
H2H favours KVV Thes Sport: 2-2-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KVV Thes Sport	Cercle Brugge Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	1.1 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.7	1.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.80

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.79
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.74 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
05:12 +3’	1.73	3.80	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:24 +49’	1.81	3.67	3.72
11:34 +35’	1.79▼	3.76▲	3.74▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KVV Thes Sport 2–2–0 Cercle Brugge Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Cercle Brugge Reserves	1-1 HT 0-1	KVV Thes Sport
09/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	KVV Thes Sport	1-1 HT 0-0	Cercle Brugge Reserves
01/02/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	KVV Thes Sport	3-0 HT 0-0	Cercle Brugge Reserves
13/10/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Cercle Brugge Reserves	0-4 HT 0-2	KVV Thes Sport

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RWD Molenbeek	8	6	1	1	13	7	19
2	Union Rochefortoise	8	5	2	1	17	7	17
3	RFC Meux	8	5	1	2	15	8	16
4	Union Saint Gilloise II	8	4	2	2	15	10	14
5	Tubize	8	4	2	2	11	10	14
6	RAEC Mons	8	3	2	3	18	15	11
7	Standard Liege II	8	3	1	4	12	7	10
8	Sporting Charleroi U23	8	2	4	2	9	8	10
9	ROC Charleroi	8	2	3	3	10	17	9
10	RSC Habay	8	1	3	4	7	12	6
11	RCS Onhaye	8	2	0	6	10	20	6
12	FC Flenu	8	0	1	7	10	26	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KVV Thes Sport	Cercle Brugge Reserves
KVV Zelzate	1-1 D	1-1 D
OH Leuven II	2-3 L	0-4 L
KSK Heist	1-1 D	1-3 L
Royal Knokke	2-0 W	2-1 W
K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	3-3 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: KVV Thes Sport (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KVV Thes Sport

WWLDWDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
03/10	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	8	6	D
30/09	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
19/09	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	2-3	7	5	L
12/09	KSK Heist Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
05/09	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
29/08	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	3-3	6	2	D
26/04	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
19/04	Diegem Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	3-2	6-3	4	2	W
11/04	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-1	4	4	W

Cercle Brugge Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
03/10	KSK Heist Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	10	5	L
27/09	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
19/09	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
13/09	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-3	4	3	L
30/08	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
26/04	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
18/04	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	2-2	4	2	D
12/04	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-5	11	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KVV Thes Sport vs Cercle Brugge Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KVV Thes Sport win (51%). Probabilities: KVV Thes Sport 51%, draw 24%, Cercle Brugge Reserves 24%.

How many goals are expected in KVV Thes Sport vs Cercle Brugge Reserves?

The model expects 3.06 goals (KVV Thes Sport 1.85 · Cercle Brugge Reserves 1.22), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in KVV Thes Sport vs Cercle Brugge Reserves?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.