Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 17/10, 20:00

Prediction: K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar vs KVC Houtvenne

Team pages: K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar · KVC Houtvenne

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar1.75

KVC Houtvenne2.19

1X2

30% 23% 47%

K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Draw KVC Houtvenne

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDWLLL

KVC Houtvenne 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 2–0 KVC Houtvenne (2 last)

K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar4-3KVC Houtvenne
KVC Houtvenne0-3K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 1488 · KVC Houtvenne 1510

	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	Draw	KVC Houtvenne
Our model	30%	22%	48%
Market	30%	23%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	KVC Houtvenne
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.5	2.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/10/80%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	2 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.90

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.80▼	Pinn 3.00 ★
X	3.90 → 3.75▼	Bet365 3.75
2	1.91 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:40 +35’	3.00	3.90	1.91
06:08 +6’	2.80▼	3.75▼	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:39 +35’	3.01	3.53	2.10
13:15 +51’	3.01	3.52▼	2.10
11:33 +35’	3.00▼	3.55▲	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 2–0–0 KVC Houtvenne

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	4-3 HT 0-1	KVC Houtvenne
29/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	KVC Houtvenne	0-3 HT 0-0	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RWD Molenbeek	8	6	1	1	13	7	19
2	Union Rochefortoise	8	5	2	1	17	7	17
3	RFC Meux	8	5	1	2	15	8	16
4	Union Saint Gilloise II	8	4	2	2	15	10	14
5	Tubize	8	4	2	2	11	10	14
6	RAEC Mons	8	3	2	3	18	15	11
7	Standard Liege II	8	3	1	4	12	7	10
8	Sporting Charleroi U23	8	2	4	2	9	8	10
9	ROC Charleroi	8	2	3	3	10	17	9
10	RSC Habay	8	1	3	4	7	12	6
11	RCS Onhaye	8	2	0	6	10	20	6
12	FC Flenu	8	0	1	7	10	26	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar	KVC Houtvenne
OH Leuven II	1-3 L	3-1 W
Hoogstraten VV	4-4 D	0-3 L
RFC Mandel Utd	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: KVC Houtvenne (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar

LLWDDDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-2	10	5	L
03/10	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
27/09	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
19/09	KSK Heist Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	3-2	7	3	W
12/09	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	1-3	4-4	1	4	D
05/09	RFC Mandel Utd Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
29/08	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	3-3	3	2	D
26/04	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	4-3	–	–	W
19/04	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
11/04	KVV Thes Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	2	4	L

KVC Houtvenne

LLLWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
03/10	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-3	6	5	L
30/09	RFC Mandel Utd Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
20/09	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
11/09	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	5-0	2	4	W
06/09	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	4-3	1	6	W
29/08	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	3-0	3-1	3	4	W
26/04	K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-4	–	–	L
19/04	Sporting Hasselt Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
11/04	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	1-2	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar vs KVC Houtvenne?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KVC Houtvenne win (47%). Probabilities: K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 30%, draw 23%, KVC Houtvenne 47%.

How many goals are expected in K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar vs KVC Houtvenne?

The model expects 3.94 goals (K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 1.75 · KVC Houtvenne 2.19), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in K Lyra-Lierse Berlaar vs KVC Houtvenne?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.