Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 03/10, 20:00

Prediction: Union Rochefortoise vs Standard Liege II

Team pages: Union Rochefortoise · Standard Liege II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Union Rochefortoise2

Standard Liege II1.17

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Union Rochefortoise Draw Standard Liege II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Rochefortoise 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWWLDD

Standard Liege II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDWDLLDL

Head-to-head

Union Rochefortoise 3–1–0 Standard Liege II (4 last)

Standard Liege II0-1Union Rochefortoise
Union Rochefortoise2-2Standard Liege II
Standard Liege II1-2Union Rochefortoise
Union Rochefortoise1-0Standard Liege II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Rochefortoise 1543 · Standard Liege II 1478

	Union Rochefortoise	Draw	Standard Liege II
Our model	56%	24%	21%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Rochefortoise (rating 1543 vs 1478).
H2H favours Union Rochefortoise: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Rochefortoise	Standard Liege II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.9	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	2.4 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.90

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:04 +9’	1.60	3.90	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Rochefortoise 3–1–0 Standard Liege II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Standard Liege II	0-1 HT 0-0	Union Rochefortoise
18/10/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	2-2 HT 0-1	Standard Liege II
14/12/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Standard Liege II	1-2 HT 0-0	Union Rochefortoise
15/09/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Rochefortoise	1-0 HT 0-0	Standard Liege II

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RWD Molenbeek	6	5	1	0	9	2	16
2	RFC Meux	6	5	0	1	14	4	15
3	Union Rochefortoise	6	3	2	1	13	7	11
4	Tubize	6	3	2	1	9	8	11
5	Union Saint Gilloise II	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
6	RAEC Mons	5	2	1	2	10	10	7
7	ROC Charleroi	6	2	1	3	8	15	7
8	Sporting Charleroi U23	6	1	3	2	4	5	6
9	RCS Onhaye	6	2	0	4	7	12	6
10	RSC Habay	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
11	Standard Liege II	5	1	1	3	5	3	4
12	FC Flenu	6	0	1	5	8	17	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Rochefortoise	Standard Liege II
Sporting Charleroi U23	1-1 D	2-0 W
Tubize	4-1 W	0-1 L
RSC Habay	4-2 W	0-0 D
Union Saint Gilloise II	2-0 W	0-1 L
RFC Meux	0-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Union Rochefortoise (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Rochefortoise

LWLLWWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	RWD Molenbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	5	8	D
19/09	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
12/09	RCS Onhaye Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
05/09	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	4-1	9	5	W
29/08	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	4-2	4	5	W
26/08	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	2-0	4	8	W
10/05	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-3	2	5	L
03/05	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-3	3-5	2	2	L
25/04	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	4-1	4	5	W
18/04	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-3	5	3	L

Standard Liege II

LWWDWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
13/09	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
06/09	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
30/08	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
10/05	Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
03/05	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-0	2	0	W
25/04	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
19/04	RRC Stockay-Warfusee Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	8	5	W
12/04	UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-1	9	7	W
29/03	Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-3	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Rochefortoise vs Standard Liege II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Rochefortoise win (56%). Probabilities: Union Rochefortoise 56%, draw 23%, Standard Liege II 21%.

How many goals are expected in Union Rochefortoise vs Standard Liege II?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Union Rochefortoise 2 · Standard Liege II 1.17), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Rochefortoise vs Standard Liege II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.