Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: Belisia Bilzen SV vs Tienen

Team pages: Belisia Bilzen SV · Tienen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Belisia Bilzen SV1.78

Tienen1.43

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Belisia Bilzen SV Draw Tienen

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Belisia Bilzen SV 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWDLWLWL

Tienen 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDLLWDWD

Head-to-head

Belisia Bilzen SV 1–3 Tienen (4 last)

Belisia Bilzen SV0-2Tienen
Tienen0-5Belisia Bilzen SV
Tienen1-0Belisia Bilzen SV
Belisia Bilzen SV0-4Tienen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Belisia Bilzen SV 1524 · Tienen 1475

	Belisia Bilzen SV	Draw	Tienen
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Belisia Bilzen SV (rating 1524 vs 1475).
H2H favours Tienen: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Belisia Bilzen SV	Tienen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.4	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.00▲	Pinn 2.05
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.21 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:07 +4’	1.95	3.70	3.00
12:55 +4’	2.00▲	3.70	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:23 +108’	2.05	3.42	3.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Belisia Bilzen SV 1–0–3 Tienen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Belisia Bilzen SV	0-2 HT 0-1	Tienen
09/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tienen	0-5 HT 0-2	Belisia Bilzen SV
26/01/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tienen	1-0 HT 0-0	Belisia Bilzen SV
01/09/24 Belgium First Amateur Division	Belisia Bilzen SV	0-4 HT 0-0	Tienen

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	7	5	1	1	15	5	16
2	RWD Molenbeek	7	5	1	1	11	6	16
3	Union Rochefortoise	7	4	2	1	14	7	14
4	Tubize	7	4	2	1	10	8	14
5	Union Saint Gilloise II	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
6	RAEC Mons	7	3	1	3	16	13	10
7	Sporting Charleroi U23	7	2	3	2	8	7	9
8	ROC Charleroi	7	2	2	3	9	16	8
9	Standard Liege II	7	2	1	4	8	6	7
10	RCS Onhaye	7	2	0	5	9	16	6
11	RSC Habay	7	1	2	4	5	10	5
12	FC Flenu	7	0	1	6	8	21	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Belisia Bilzen SV	Tienen
Royal Knokke	2-3 L	0-2 L
KFC Merelbeke	1-0 W	0-0 D
SK Roeselare	1-1 D	1-1 D
Cercle Brugge Reserves	5-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Belisia Bilzen SV (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Belisia Bilzen SV

LWWWDLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	RFC Mandel Utd Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
30/09	KSK Heist Belgium First Amateur Division	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
20/09	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-3	9	7	L
13/09	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
06/09	KVC Houtvenne Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	3-4	2	6	L
30/08	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
26/04	Diegem Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	3-2	5	3	W
19/04	KVV Zelzate Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	5-0	2	1	W
12/04	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	5-0	5	1	W
29/03	Tienen Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-2	5	3	L

Tienen

WLLDLLWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	KFC Merelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	9	8	D
27/09	Cercle Brugge Reserves Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	3-1	2	5	W
20/09	SK Roeselare Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
13/09	KRC Harelbeke Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	4-0	1	1	W
06/09	OH Leuven II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-2	0	1	L
30/08	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	2-3	3-4	5	3	L
26/04	Hoogstraten VV Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
19/04	Royal Knokke Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
12/04	Dessel Sport Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-3	5	1	L
29/03	Belisia Bilzen SV Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Belisia Bilzen SV vs Tienen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Belisia Bilzen SV win (45%). Probabilities: Belisia Bilzen SV 45%, draw 25%, Tienen 30%.

How many goals are expected in Belisia Bilzen SV vs Tienen?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Belisia Bilzen SV 1.78 · Tienen 1.43), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Belisia Bilzen SV vs Tienen?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.