Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 19/09, 19:30

Prediction: Union Saint Gilloise II vs Standard Liege II

Team pages: Union Saint Gilloise II · Standard Liege II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Union Saint Gilloise II1.55

Standard Liege II1.15

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Union Saint Gilloise II Draw Standard Liege II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Saint Gilloise II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWLLWD

Standard Liege II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWDLLD

Head-to-head

Union Saint Gilloise II 1–2–3 Standard Liege II (6 last)

Union Saint Gilloise II1-1Standard Liege II
Standard Liege II1-0Union Saint Gilloise II
Union Saint Gilloise II2-1Standard Liege II
Standard Liege II4-2Union Saint Gilloise II
Standard Liege II1-1Union Saint Gilloise II
Union Saint Gilloise II0-1Standard Liege II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Saint Gilloise II 1510 · Standard Liege II 1515

	Union Saint Gilloise II	Draw	Standard Liege II
Our model	45%	28%	27%
Market	47%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Standard Liege II: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Saint Gilloise II	Standard Liege II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.8	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	3.40 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	2.70 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.53 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:56 +57’	2.20	3.40	2.70
04:58 +7’	1.95▼	3.50▲	3.10▲
13:39 +39’	1.90▼	3.70▲	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:39 +86’	1.90	3.52	3.55
06:42 +17’	1.92▲	3.44▼	3.57▲
09:30 +9’	1.86▼	3.67▲	3.53▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Saint Gilloise II 1–2–3 Standard Liege II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Saint Gilloise II	1-1 HT 1-0	Standard Liege II
01/03/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Standard Liege II	1-0 HT 1-0	Union Saint Gilloise II
22/11/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Saint Gilloise II	2-1 HT 0-1	Standard Liege II
28/09/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Standard Liege II	4-2 HT 2-1	Union Saint Gilloise II
04/05/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Standard Liege II	1-1 HT 1-0	Union Saint Gilloise II
01/03/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Union Saint Gilloise II	0-1 HT 0-0	Standard Liege II

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFC Meux	4	4	0	0	12	2	12
2	RWD Molenbeek	4	4	0	0	7	1	12
3	Union Rochefortoise	4	3	0	1	11	5	9
4	Tubize	4	2	1	1	5	6	7
5	RCS Onhaye	4	2	0	2	4	5	6
6	Standard Liege II	4	1	1	2	5	2	4
7	Union Saint Gilloise II	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
8	Sporting Charleroi U23	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
9	RAEC Mons	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
10	ROC Charleroi	4	1	1	2	3	9	4
11	RSC Habay	4	0	1	3	3	8	1
12	FC Flenu	4	0	1	3	4	11	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Saint Gilloise II	Standard Liege II
RSC Habay	2-0 W	0-0 D
RFC Meux	1-2 L	0-1 L
RRC Stockay-Warfusee	2-1 W	3-0 W
Crossing Schaerbeek	1-0 W	1-1 D
UR Namur	3-1 W	3-1 W
Sporting Charleroi U23	0-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Saint Gilloise II

WLWDWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
05/09	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
29/08	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	1-2	9	4	L
26/08	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-2	3	8	L
10/05	RRC Stockay-Warfusee Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/05	Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
25/04	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
19/04	UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
11/04	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
04/04	UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	5-0	6	2	W

Standard Liege II

WLWWDWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
06/09	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
30/08	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	8	5	L
10/05	Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
03/05	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	2-0	2	0	W
25/04	Union Saint Gilloise II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
19/04	RRC Stockay-Warfusee Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	8	5	W
12/04	UR Namur Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-1	9	7	W
29/03	Crossing Schaerbeek Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-3	1	3	L
22/03	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Saint Gilloise II vs Standard Liege II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Saint Gilloise II win (46%). Probabilities: Union Saint Gilloise II 46%, draw 26%, Standard Liege II 28%.

How many goals are expected in Union Saint Gilloise II vs Standard Liege II?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Union Saint Gilloise II 1.55 · Standard Liege II 1.15), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Saint Gilloise II vs Standard Liege II?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.