Football · Belgium First Amateur Division · 12/09, 20:00

Prediction: RAEC Mons vs Tubize

Team pages: RAEC Mons · Tubize

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

RAEC Mons1.48

Tubize0.87

1X2

51% 27% 22%

RAEC Mons Draw Tubize

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

RAEC Mons 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLDWWDLW

Tubize 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDWWWL

Head-to-head

RAEC Mons 0–4–2 Tubize (6 last)

RAEC Mons0-0Tubize
Tubize2-2RAEC Mons
Tubize1-0RAEC Mons
RAEC Mons1-1Tubize
Tubize1-0RAEC Mons
RAEC Mons1-1Tubize

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RAEC Mons 1523 · Tubize 1512

	RAEC Mons	Draw	Tubize
Our model	50%	29%	21%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tubize: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RAEC Mons	Tubize
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.7	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	5.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.73▼	Bet365 1.73
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.63
2	3.25 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.23 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:31 +21’	1.91	3.50	3.25
04:43 +3’	1.70▼	3.70▲	3.90▲
11:32 +14’	1.73▲	3.60▼	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:41 +11’	1.74	3.47	3.93
04:57 +116’	1.74▲	3.44▼	3.93
08:38 +32’	1.70▼	3.51▲	4.07▲
20:01 +9’	1.72▲	3.63▲	4.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · RAEC Mons 0–4–2 Tubize

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	RAEC Mons	0-0 HT 0-0	Tubize
14/03/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tubize	2-2 HT 1-2	RAEC Mons
31/01/26 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tubize	1-0 HT 1-0	RAEC Mons
11/10/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	RAEC Mons	1-1 HT 0-0	Tubize
12/04/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	Tubize	1-0 HT 0-0	RAEC Mons
08/03/25 Belgium First Amateur Division	RAEC Mons	1-1 HT 1-0	Tubize

Standings · Belgium First Amateur Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Rochefortoise	3	3	0	0	10	3	9
2	RWD Molenbeek	3	3	0	0	6	1	9
3	RFC Meux	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
4	Tubize	3	2	0	1	3	4	6
5	RAEC Mons	3	1	1	1	3	1	4
6	Sporting Charleroi U23	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
7	Union Saint Gilloise II	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
8	ROC Charleroi	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
9	RCS Onhaye	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
10	FC Flenu	3	0	1	2	3	7	1
11	Standard Liege II	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
12	RSC Habay	3	0	0	3	3	8	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RAEC Mons	Tubize
Sporting Charleroi U23	0-1 L	1-0 W
RFC Meux	0-0 D	2-2 D
RSC Habay	1-0 W	2-0 W
Excelsior Virton	0-2 L	2-1 W
Union Rochefortoise	3-1 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tubize (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RAEC Mons

DWWLDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	ROC Charleroi Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
30/08	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
26/08	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
10/05	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-0	3	4	W
03/05	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
25/04	Tubize Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/04	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/04	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	2-0	3-1	9	3	W
28/03	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	1-2	4-3	5	8	W
21/03	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	12	1	D

Tubize

LLWWDDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	1-4	5	5	L
30/08	Standard Liege II Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
26/08	Sporting Charleroi U23 Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
10/05	Union Rochefortoise Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	3-2	10	5	W
03/05	RFC Meux Belgium First Amateur Division	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/04	RAEC Mons Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
18/04	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	1-0	2-0	1	8	W
11/04	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-1	2-1	2	5	W
29/03	RSC Habay Belgium First Amateur Division	0-2	0-2	10	7	L
21/03	Excelsior Virton Belgium First Amateur Division	0-0	0-1	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RAEC Mons vs Tubize?

According to our model, the most likely result is a RAEC Mons win (51%). Probabilities: RAEC Mons 51%, draw 27%, Tubize 22%.

How many goals are expected in RAEC Mons vs Tubize?

The model expects 2.35 goals (RAEC Mons 1.48 · Tubize 0.87), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in RAEC Mons vs Tubize?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.