Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 12/09, 15:15

Prediction: Amsterdamsche FC vs HHC Hardenberg

Team pages: Amsterdamsche FC · HHC Hardenberg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Amsterdamsche FC1.58

HHC Hardenberg1.81

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Amsterdamsche FC Draw HHC Hardenberg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Amsterdamsche FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLWWL

HHC Hardenberg 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLLDWWWWD

Head-to-head

Amsterdamsche FC 3–1–2 HHC Hardenberg (6 last)

Amsterdamsche FC2-3HHC Hardenberg
HHC Hardenberg4-1Amsterdamsche FC
HHC Hardenberg0-2Amsterdamsche FC
Amsterdamsche FC4-0HHC Hardenberg
HHC Hardenberg1-2Amsterdamsche FC
Amsterdamsche FC2-2HHC Hardenberg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Amsterdamsche FC 1504 · HHC Hardenberg 1569

	Amsterdamsche FC	Draw	HHC Hardenberg
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HHC Hardenberg (rating 1504 vs 1569).
H2H favours Amsterdamsche FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Amsterdamsche FC	HHC Hardenberg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.2	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.70

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.22 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:29 +6’	2.70	3.70	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:42 +173’	2.68	3.54	2.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Amsterdamsche FC 3–1–2 HHC Hardenberg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	2-3 HT 0-2	HHC Hardenberg
13/12/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	HHC Hardenberg	4-1 HT 3-1	Amsterdamsche FC
17/05/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	HHC Hardenberg	0-2 HT 0-0	Amsterdamsche FC
07/12/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	4-0 HT 2-0	HHC Hardenberg
18/05/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	HHC Hardenberg	1-2 HT 0-1	Amsterdamsche FC
09/12/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	2-2 HT 1-2	HHC Hardenberg

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	HHC Hardenberg	4	3	1	0	10	5	10
3	De Treffers	4	2	2	0	11	4	8
4	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	4	2	1	1	15	9	7
5	Katwijk	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
6	IJsselmeervogels	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Kozakken Boys	4	2	1	1	9	8	7
8	RKAV Volendam	4	2	1	1	5	8	7
9	Spakenburg	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
10	Barendrecht	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
11	Amsterdamsche FC	4	2	0	2	6	8	6
12	HSV Hoek	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
13	Koninklijke HFC	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	4	1	1	2	7	11	4
15	Kloetinge	4	1	1	2	6	10	4
16	Almere City Reserves	4	1	0	3	8	7	3
17	GVVV Veenendaal	4	0	0	4	5	14	0
18	ROHDA Raalte	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Amsterdamsche FC	HHC Hardenberg
GVVV Veenendaal	3-2 W	2-1 W
Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	0-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: HHC Hardenberg (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Amsterdamsche FC

LLWWDLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	1	8	L
29/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
22/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
23/05	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	2-3	7	1	L
16/05	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
09/05	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	4	0	W
25/04	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
18/04	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-4	1-5	8	2	L
11/04	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	6	3	L

HHC Hardenberg

WWLLDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
29/08	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-1	7	6	W
22/08	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-1	8	4	W
23/05	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-2	2	1	W
16/05	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	3-3	2	5	D
09/05	IJsselmeervogels Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-2	4	1	L
25/04	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	3	8	L
18/04	ACV Assen Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
11/04	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Amsterdamsche FC vs HHC Hardenberg?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HHC Hardenberg win (43%). Probabilities: Amsterdamsche FC 33%, draw 24%, HHC Hardenberg 43%.

How many goals are expected in Amsterdamsche FC vs HHC Hardenberg?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Amsterdamsche FC 1.58 · HHC Hardenberg 1.81), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Amsterdamsche FC vs HHC Hardenberg?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.