Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 19/09, 14:30

Prediction: HSV Hoek vs Almere City Reserves

Team pages: HSV Hoek · Almere City Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

HSV Hoek1.99

Almere City Reserves1.57

1X2

47% 23% 30%

HSV Hoek Draw Almere City Reserves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

HSV Hoek 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWDLLD

Almere City Reserves 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWLLLL

Head-to-head

HSV Hoek 2–0 Almere City Reserves (2 last)

HSV Hoek4-0Almere City Reserves
Almere City Reserves1-2HSV Hoek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSV Hoek 1533 · Almere City Reserves 1477

	HSV Hoek	Draw	Almere City Reserves
Our model	47%	23%	30%
Market	47%	23%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HSV Hoek (rating 1533 vs 1477).
H2H favours HSV Hoek: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HSV Hoek	Almere City Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.80

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:37 +11’	1.91	3.80	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HSV Hoek 2–0–0 Almere City Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	HSV Hoek	4-0 HT 1-0	Almere City Reserves
22/11/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	1-2 HT 0-0	HSV Hoek

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	HHC Hardenberg	4	3	1	0	10	5	10
3	De Treffers	4	2	2	0	11	4	8
4	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	4	2	1	1	15	9	7
5	Katwijk	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
6	IJsselmeervogels	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Kozakken Boys	4	2	1	1	9	8	7
8	RKAV Volendam	4	2	1	1	5	8	7
9	Spakenburg	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
10	Barendrecht	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
11	Amsterdamsche FC	4	2	0	2	6	8	6
12	HSV Hoek	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
13	Koninklijke HFC	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	4	1	1	2	7	11	4
15	Kloetinge	4	1	1	2	6	10	4
16	Almere City Reserves	4	1	0	3	8	7	3
17	GVVV Veenendaal	4	0	0	4	5	14	0
18	ROHDA Raalte	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSV Hoek	Almere City Reserves
RKAV Volendam	1-2 L	3-2 W
Spakenburg	0-2 L	0-3 L
Katwijk	1-1 D	2-3 L
Koninklijke HFC	3-1 W	1-2 L
Rijnsburgse Boys	2-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HSV Hoek (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSV Hoek

WWLWDWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
05/09	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	11	5	L
29/08	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
22/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
15/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
23/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
16/05	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	0	W
09/05	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-3	2-4	6	3	L
25/04	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	4-0	2	1	W
18/04	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	4-0	5-1	3	2	W

Almere City Reserves

WLWWWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	2-3	1	3	L
29/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-0	2	2	W
23/05	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	5-4	6	1	W
16/05	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
09/05	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	3-2	7	4	W
25/04	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-4	3	1	L
18/04	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	3-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSV Hoek vs Almere City Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HSV Hoek win (47%). Probabilities: HSV Hoek 47%, draw 23%, Almere City Reserves 30%.

How many goals are expected in HSV Hoek vs Almere City Reserves?

The model expects 3.55 goals (HSV Hoek 1.99 · Almere City Reserves 1.57), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HSV Hoek vs Almere City Reserves?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.