Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: Spakenburg vs Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Team pages: Spakenburg · Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.93Total

Spakenburg2.41

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves1.53

1X2

57% 20% 23%

Spakenburg Draw Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Spakenburg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWLWLW

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWLDD

Head-to-head

Spakenburg 4–2–0 Sparta Rotterdam Reserves (6 last)

Spakenburg1-1Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Sparta Rotterdam Reserves4-4Spakenburg
Spakenburg3-1Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Sparta Rotterdam Reserves0-5Spakenburg
Sparta Rotterdam Reserves1-2Spakenburg
Spakenburg3-1Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spakenburg 1540 · Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 1472

	Spakenburg	Draw	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Our model	56%	21%	23%
Market	57%	20%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.93 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spakenburg (rating 1540 vs 1472).
H2H favours Spakenburg: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spakenburg	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	2.5 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.4	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.3	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.50

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:47 +3’	1.57	4.50	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Spakenburg 4–2–0 Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	1-1 HT 0-0	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
23/08/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	4-4 HT 3-2	Spakenburg
05/04/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	3-1 HT 2-1	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
26/10/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	0-5 HT 0-0	Spakenburg
20/04/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	1-2 HT 1-1	Spakenburg
18/11/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	3-1 HT 1-1	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	HHC Hardenberg	4	3	1	0	10	5	10
3	De Treffers	4	2	2	0	11	4	8
4	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	4	2	1	1	15	9	7
5	Katwijk	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
6	IJsselmeervogels	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Kozakken Boys	4	2	1	1	9	8	7
8	RKAV Volendam	4	2	1	1	5	8	7
9	Spakenburg	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
10	Barendrecht	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
11	Amsterdamsche FC	4	2	0	2	6	8	6
12	HSV Hoek	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
13	Koninklijke HFC	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	4	1	1	2	7	11	4
15	Kloetinge	4	1	1	2	6	10	4
16	Almere City Reserves	4	1	0	3	8	7	3
17	GVVV Veenendaal	4	0	0	4	5	14	0
18	ROHDA Raalte	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spakenburg	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Almere City Reserves	3-0 W	0-3 L
Barendrecht	1-3 L	4-1 W
Katwijk	1-0 W	2-2 D
Koninklijke HFC	2-3 L	2-2 D
De Treffers	0-0 D	1-4 L
Rijnsburgse Boys	3-2 W	6-3 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spakenburg

WWDWLWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
05/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
29/08	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
22/08	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
15/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
23/05	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-3	5	1	L
16/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	6	0	W
09/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
25/04	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
18/04	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	3-0	7	1	W

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

LWLLLWWLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	2-2	6	7	D
05/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
29/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	1-3	7	6	L
22/08	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	6-3	–	–	W
15/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	6-1	8	1	W
23/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-4	4	2	L
16/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-4	4	1	L
09/05	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	2-4	4	1	L
25/04	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
18/04	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spakenburg vs Sparta Rotterdam Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spakenburg win (57%). Probabilities: Spakenburg 57%, draw 20%, Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 23%.

How many goals are expected in Spakenburg vs Sparta Rotterdam Reserves?

The model expects 3.93 goals (Spakenburg 2.41 · Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 1.53), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Spakenburg vs Sparta Rotterdam Reserves?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.