Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 19/09, 14:30

Prediction: Koninklijke HFC vs Amsterdamsche FC

Team pages: Koninklijke HFC · Amsterdamsche FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Koninklijke HFC1.47

Amsterdamsche FC1.61

1X2

34% 25% 40%

Koninklijke HFC Draw Amsterdamsche FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Koninklijke HFC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Amsterdamsche FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Koninklijke HFC 4–1–1 Amsterdamsche FC (6 last)

Koninklijke HFC2-1Amsterdamsche FC
Amsterdamsche FC1-2Koninklijke HFC
Amsterdamsche FC2-2Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC1-0Amsterdamsche FC
Koninklijke HFC0-2Amsterdamsche FC
Amsterdamsche FC1-3Koninklijke HFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Koninklijke HFC 1490 · Amsterdamsche FC 1506

	Koninklijke HFC	Draw	Amsterdamsche FC
Our model	34%	26%	40%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Koninklijke HFC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Koninklijke HFC	Amsterdamsche FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.8 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.9	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	1.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.33 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:23 +25’	2.60	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +79’	2.53	3.56	2.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Koninklijke HFC 4–1–1 Amsterdamsche FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Koninklijke HFC	2-1 HT 1-0	Amsterdamsche FC
18/10/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Koninklijke HFC
08/02/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	2-2 HT 2-2	Koninklijke HFC
14/09/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Koninklijke HFC	1-0 HT 0-0	Amsterdamsche FC
06/04/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Koninklijke HFC	0-2 HT 0-1	Amsterdamsche FC
05/11/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	1-3 HT 1-3	Koninklijke HFC

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	5	5	0	0	16	1	15
2	HHC Hardenberg	5	3	2	0	12	7	11
3	Kozakken Boys	5	3	1	1	15	9	10
4	De Treffers	5	2	3	0	12	5	9
5	Spakenburg	5	3	0	2	8	5	9
6	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	5	2	2	1	17	11	8
7	Katwijk	5	2	2	1	8	6	8
8	RKAV Volendam	5	2	2	1	6	9	8
9	IJsselmeervogels	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
10	Barendrecht	5	2	1	2	7	8	7
11	Amsterdamsche FC	5	2	1	2	8	10	7
12	HSV Hoek	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
13	Koninklijke HFC	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
14	Kloetinge	5	1	2	2	7	11	5
15	Rijnsburgse Boys	5	1	1	3	8	17	4
16	Almere City Reserves	5	1	0	4	8	10	3
17	GVVV Veenendaal	4	0	0	4	5	14	0
18	ROHDA Raalte	5	0	0	5	3	16	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Koninklijke HFC	Amsterdamsche FC
HSV Hoek	1-3 L	1-5 L
Rijnsburgse Boys	0-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Koninklijke HFC (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Koninklijke HFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
05/09	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
29/08	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/08	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
23/05	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	3-2	4	1	W
16/05	ACV Assen Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
09/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-4	2	1	L
25/04	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
18/04	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-2	3	5	L

Amsterdamsche FC

LWWDLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
05/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	1	8	L
29/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
22/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
23/05	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	2-3	7	1	L
16/05	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
09/05	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	4	0	W
25/04	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
18/04	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-4	1-5	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Koninklijke HFC vs Amsterdamsche FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Amsterdamsche FC win (40%). Probabilities: Koninklijke HFC 34%, draw 25%, Amsterdamsche FC 40%.

How many goals are expected in Koninklijke HFC vs Amsterdamsche FC?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Koninklijke HFC 1.47 · Amsterdamsche FC 1.61), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Koninklijke HFC vs Amsterdamsche FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.