Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 26/09, 18:00

Prediction: De Treffers vs Spakenburg

Team pages: De Treffers · Spakenburg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

De Treffers1.76

Spakenburg1.49

1X2

44% 24% 32%

De Treffers Draw Spakenburg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

De Treffers 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWDDDW

Spakenburg 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWLWLWD

Head-to-head

De Treffers 2–1–3 Spakenburg (6 last)

De Treffers0-0Spakenburg
Spakenburg0-5De Treffers
Spakenburg1-3De Treffers
De Treffers0-2Spakenburg
De Treffers1-3Spakenburg
Spakenburg3-0De Treffers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · De Treffers 1595 · Spakenburg 1506

	De Treffers	Draw	Spakenburg
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	44%	23%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours De Treffers (rating 1595 vs 1506).
H2H favours Spakenburg: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	De Treffers	Spakenburg
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 6.6	2.4 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.90

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.00▼	Bet365 2.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.63 → 2.70▲	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:08 +11’	2.05	3.90	2.63
14:42 +69’	2.00▼	3.90	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · De Treffers 2–1–3 Spakenburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	De Treffers	0-0 HT 0-0	Spakenburg
29/11/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	0-5 HT 0-1	De Treffers
22/03/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	1-3 HT 0-1	De Treffers
19/10/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	De Treffers	0-2 HT 0-0	Spakenburg
25/05/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	De Treffers	1-3 HT 0-2	Spakenburg
16/12/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	3-0 HT 1-0	De Treffers

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	6	5	0	1	17	4	15
2	Kozakken Boys	6	4	1	1	17	10	13
3	De Treffers	6	3	3	0	14	6	12
4	HHC Hardenberg	6	3	2	1	13	9	11
5	IJsselmeervogels	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
6	Spakenburg	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
7	Amsterdamsche FC	6	3	1	2	11	11	10
8	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	6	2	3	1	18	12	9
9	RKAV Volendam	6	2	3	1	7	10	9
10	Katwijk	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
11	Barendrecht	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
12	Rijnsburgse Boys	6	2	1	3	11	18	7
13	HSV Hoek	6	1	3	2	8	9	6
14	Koninklijke HFC	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
15	Kloetinge	6	1	2	3	7	14	5
16	Almere City Reserves	6	1	1	4	10	12	4
17	GVVV Veenendaal	5	1	0	4	8	14	3
18	ROHDA Raalte	6	0	0	6	3	17	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	De Treffers	Spakenburg
Katwijk	2-1 W	1-0 W
Koninklijke HFC	1-1 D	2-3 L
Rijnsburgse Boys	1-1 D	3-2 W
HSV Hoek	2-2 D	2-0 W
Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

De Treffers

WDWDWWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
12/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
05/09	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-2	7	6	D
29/08	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
23/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	5-1	6	2	W
23/05	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
16/05	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-1	8	1	W
09/05	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
25/04	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-0	11	3	W

Spakenburg

WDWLWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
05/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
29/08	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
22/08	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
15/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
23/05	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-3	5	1	L
16/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	6	0	W
09/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
25/04	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in De Treffers vs Spakenburg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a De Treffers win (44%). Probabilities: De Treffers 44%, draw 24%, Spakenburg 32%.

How many goals are expected in De Treffers vs Spakenburg?

The model expects 3.24 goals (De Treffers 1.76 · Spakenburg 1.49), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in De Treffers vs Spakenburg?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.