Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 26/09, 15:00

Prediction: Almere City Reserves vs Barendrecht

Team pages: Almere City Reserves · Barendrecht

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

Almere City Reserves2.41

Barendrecht1.71

1X2

52% 22% 26%

Almere City Reserves Draw Barendrecht

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Almere City Reserves 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Barendrecht 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Almere City Reserves 2–2–2 Barendrecht (6 last)

Almere City Reserves3-3Barendrecht
Barendrecht4-3Almere City Reserves
Barendrecht0-5Almere City Reserves
Almere City Reserves1-1Barendrecht
Almere City Reserves8-0Barendrecht
Barendrecht1-0Almere City Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Almere City Reserves 1466 · Barendrecht 1498

	Almere City Reserves	Draw	Barendrecht
Our model	53%	21%	26%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Almere City Reserves	Barendrecht
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.2	1.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	3.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.93 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:00 +4’	1.73	4.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:20 +5’	1.93	3.98	2.99

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Almere City Reserves 2–2–2 Barendrecht

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	3-3 HT 2-1	Barendrecht
27/09/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Barendrecht	4-3 HT 3-2	Almere City Reserves
10/05/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Barendrecht	0-5 HT 0-3	Almere City Reserves
30/11/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	1-1 HT 0-1	Barendrecht
25/05/19 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	8-0 HT 3-0	Barendrecht
12/01/19 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Barendrecht	1-0 HT 0-0	Almere City Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	6	5	0	1	17	4	15
2	Kozakken Boys	6	4	1	1	17	10	13
3	De Treffers	6	3	3	0	14	6	12
4	HHC Hardenberg	6	3	2	1	13	9	11
5	IJsselmeervogels	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
6	Spakenburg	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
7	Amsterdamsche FC	6	3	1	2	11	11	10
8	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	6	2	3	1	18	12	9
9	RKAV Volendam	6	2	3	1	7	10	9
10	Katwijk	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
11	Barendrecht	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
12	Rijnsburgse Boys	6	2	1	3	11	18	7
13	HSV Hoek	6	1	3	2	8	9	6
14	Koninklijke HFC	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
15	Kloetinge	6	1	2	3	7	14	5
16	Almere City Reserves	6	1	1	4	10	12	4
17	GVVV Veenendaal	5	1	0	4	8	14	3
18	ROHDA Raalte	6	0	0	6	3	17	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Almere City Reserves	Barendrecht
HSV Hoek	2-2 D	1-1 D
Spakenburg	0-3 L	3-1 W
Katwijk	2-3 L	0-2 L
Koninklijke HFC	1-2 L	2-1 W
HHC Hardenberg	1-2 L	1-3 L
Excelsior Maassluis	1-0 W	1-2 L
RKAV Volendam	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Almere City Reserves (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Almere City Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	2-3	1	3	L
29/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-0	2	2	W
23/05	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	5-4	6	1	W
16/05	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
09/05	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	3-2	7	4	W
25/04	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-4	3	1	L

Barendrecht

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
12/09	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
05/09	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
29/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-2	5	0	L
22/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-3	14	4	L
23/05	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
16/05	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-5	7	2	L
09/05	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	3-1	4-2	4	3	W
25/04	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-4	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Almere City Reserves vs Barendrecht?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Almere City Reserves win (52%). Probabilities: Almere City Reserves 52%, draw 22%, Barendrecht 26%.

How many goals are expected in Almere City Reserves vs Barendrecht?

The model expects 4.12 goals (Almere City Reserves 2.41 · Barendrecht 1.71), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Almere City Reserves vs Barendrecht?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.