Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 26/09, 15:15

Prediction: Amsterdamsche FC vs Katwijk

Team pages: Amsterdamsche FC · Katwijk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Amsterdamsche FC1.46

Katwijk1.73

1X2

32% 25% 44%

Amsterdamsche FC Draw Katwijk

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Amsterdamsche FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWWLDW

Katwijk 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDWWDL

Head-to-head

Amsterdamsche FC 3–1–2 Katwijk (6 last)

Amsterdamsche FC2-2Katwijk
Katwijk0-1Amsterdamsche FC
Amsterdamsche FC1-4Katwijk
Katwijk0-1Amsterdamsche FC
Amsterdamsche FC3-2Katwijk
Katwijk2-0Amsterdamsche FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Amsterdamsche FC 1561 · Katwijk 1503

	Amsterdamsche FC	Draw	Katwijk
Our model	31%	25%	43%
Market	32%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Amsterdamsche FC (rating 1561 vs 1503).
H2H favours Amsterdamsche FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Amsterdamsche FC	Katwijk
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.8	2.6 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.75

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.83
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.30 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.09 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:47 +10’	2.45	3.75	2.30
20:15 +23’	2.80▲	3.75	2.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:51 +107’	2.83	3.64	2.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Amsterdamsche FC 3–1–2 Katwijk

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	2-2 HT 1-2	Katwijk
11/10/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Katwijk	0-1 HT 0-0	Amsterdamsche FC
18/01/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	1-4 HT 0-1	Katwijk
24/08/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Katwijk	0-1 HT 0-0	Amsterdamsche FC
20/04/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	3-2 HT 2-0	Katwijk
18/11/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Katwijk	2-0 HT 1-0	Amsterdamsche FC

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	6	5	0	1	17	4	15
2	Kozakken Boys	6	4	1	1	17	10	13
3	De Treffers	6	3	3	0	14	6	12
4	HHC Hardenberg	6	3	2	1	13	9	11
5	IJsselmeervogels	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
6	Spakenburg	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
7	Amsterdamsche FC	6	3	1	2	11	11	10
8	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	6	2	3	1	18	12	9
9	RKAV Volendam	6	2	3	1	7	10	9
10	Katwijk	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
11	Barendrecht	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
12	Rijnsburgse Boys	6	2	1	3	11	18	7
13	HSV Hoek	6	1	3	2	8	9	6
14	Koninklijke HFC	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
15	Kloetinge	6	1	2	3	7	14	5
16	Almere City Reserves	6	1	1	4	10	12	4
17	GVVV Veenendaal	5	1	0	4	8	14	3
18	ROHDA Raalte	6	0	0	6	3	17	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Amsterdamsche FC

WWDLLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	3-1	6	0	W
12/09	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
05/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	1	8	L
29/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
22/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
23/05	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	2-3	7	1	L
16/05	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
09/05	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	4	0	W
25/04	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-0	7	1	W

Katwijk

WWLWLDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
12/09	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	2-2	9	7	D
05/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	3-2	6	3	W
29/08	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
22/08	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
15/08	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
23/05	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	4-1	3	2	W
16/05	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	2	0	L
09/05	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	4-0	14	1	W
25/04	ACV Assen Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Amsterdamsche FC vs Katwijk?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Katwijk win (44%). Probabilities: Amsterdamsche FC 32%, draw 25%, Katwijk 44%.

How many goals are expected in Amsterdamsche FC vs Katwijk?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Amsterdamsche FC 1.46 · Katwijk 1.73), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Amsterdamsche FC vs Katwijk?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.