Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 26/09, 15:00

Prediction: Kozakken Boys vs Koninklijke HFC

Team pages: Kozakken Boys · Koninklijke HFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Kozakken Boys2.14

Koninklijke HFC1.26

1X2

57% 22% 21%

Kozakken Boys Draw Koninklijke HFC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Kozakken Boys 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLLDWWWW

Koninklijke HFC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLWDDL

Head-to-head

Kozakken Boys 2–1–3 Koninklijke HFC (6 last)

Kozakken Boys3-2Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC0-1Kozakken Boys
Koninklijke HFC1-1Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys1-2Koninklijke HFC
Kozakken Boys2-3Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC3-1Kozakken Boys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kozakken Boys 1583 · Koninklijke HFC 1451

	Kozakken Boys	Draw	Koninklijke HFC
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kozakken Boys (rating 1583 vs 1451).
H2H favours Koninklijke HFC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kozakken Boys	Koninklijke HFC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.7	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.10

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.61
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.24 ★
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:16 +10’	1.57	4.10	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +14’	1.61	4.24	4.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kozakken Boys 2–1–3 Koninklijke HFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Kozakken Boys	3-2 HT 0-0	Koninklijke HFC
11/10/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Koninklijke HFC	0-1 HT 0-1	Kozakken Boys
20/01/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Koninklijke HFC	1-1 HT 1-0	Kozakken Boys
26/08/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Kozakken Boys	1-2 HT 1-2	Koninklijke HFC
20/05/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Kozakken Boys	2-3 HT 0-1	Koninklijke HFC
26/11/22 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Koninklijke HFC	3-1 HT 2-0	Kozakken Boys

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	6	5	0	1	17	4	15
2	Kozakken Boys	6	4	1	1	17	10	13
3	De Treffers	6	3	3	0	14	6	12
4	HHC Hardenberg	6	3	2	1	13	9	11
5	IJsselmeervogels	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
6	Spakenburg	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
7	Amsterdamsche FC	6	3	1	2	11	11	10
8	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	6	2	3	1	18	12	9
9	RKAV Volendam	6	2	3	1	7	10	9
10	Katwijk	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
11	Barendrecht	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
12	Rijnsburgse Boys	6	2	1	3	11	18	7
13	HSV Hoek	6	1	3	2	8	9	6
14	Koninklijke HFC	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
15	Kloetinge	6	1	2	3	7	14	5
16	Almere City Reserves	6	1	1	4	10	12	4
17	GVVV Veenendaal	5	1	0	4	8	14	3
18	ROHDA Raalte	6	0	0	6	3	17	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kozakken Boys

WWDLLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	6-1	5	0	W
05/09	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
29/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	3-2	6	4	W
22/08	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	3-3	–	–	D
15/08	IJsselmeervogels Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
23/05	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
16/05	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	3-3	12	5	D
09/05	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
25/04	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-1	5	6	W

Koninklijke HFC

LLLWLLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-3	5	0	L
12/09	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
05/09	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	2-2	6	3	D
29/08	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/08	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
23/05	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	3-2	4	1	W
16/05	ACV Assen Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
09/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-4	2	1	L
25/04	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-1	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kozakken Boys vs Koninklijke HFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kozakken Boys win (57%). Probabilities: Kozakken Boys 57%, draw 22%, Koninklijke HFC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Kozakken Boys vs Koninklijke HFC?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Kozakken Boys 2.14 · Koninklijke HFC 1.26), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Kozakken Boys vs Koninklijke HFC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.