Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 03/10, 14:30

Prediction: HSV Hoek vs De Treffers

Team pages: HSV Hoek · De Treffers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

HSV Hoek1.37

De Treffers1.91

1X2

27% 23% 49%

HSV Hoek Draw De Treffers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

HSV Hoek 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWDLLDDL

De Treffers 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDDDWW

Head-to-head

HSV Hoek 1–1–0 De Treffers (2 last)

De Treffers2-2HSV Hoek
HSV Hoek2-1De Treffers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSV Hoek 1491 · De Treffers 1582

	HSV Hoek	Draw	De Treffers
Our model	27%	24%	49%
Market	28%	22%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours De Treffers (rating 1491 vs 1582).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HSV Hoek	De Treffers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	2.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.7	3.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.25

X4.00

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:24 +6’	3.25	4.00	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HSV Hoek 1–1–0 De Treffers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	De Treffers	2-2 HT 1-1	HSV Hoek
13/12/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	HSV Hoek	2-1 HT 1-1	De Treffers

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	7	6	0	1	19	4	18
2	De Treffers	7	4	3	0	19	6	15
3	Kozakken Boys	7	4	2	1	18	11	14
4	IJsselmeervogels	6	4	1	1	9	3	13
5	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	7	3	3	1	21	12	12
6	HHC Hardenberg	7	3	2	2	13	11	11
7	Barendrecht	7	3	2	2	12	10	11
8	Katwijk	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
9	Amsterdamsche FC	7	3	1	3	11	12	10
10	Spakenburg	7	3	1	3	9	11	10
11	RKAV Volendam	7	2	3	2	9	13	9
12	Rijnsburgse Boys	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
13	GVVV Veenendaal	6	2	0	4	11	16	6
14	Koninklijke HFC	7	1	3	3	9	13	6
15	HSV Hoek	7	1	3	3	8	12	6
16	Kloetinge	7	1	3	3	10	17	6
17	Almere City Reserves	7	1	1	5	11	16	4
18	ROHDA Raalte	7	0	1	6	6	20	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSV Hoek	De Treffers
Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	0-3 L	4-1 W
Spakenburg	0-2 L	5-0 W
Katwijk	1-1 D	2-1 W
Koninklijke HFC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Rijnsburgse Boys	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: De Treffers (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSV Hoek

LWDWDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-3	5	7	L
19/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
05/09	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	11	5	L
29/08	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
22/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
15/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
23/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
16/05	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	0	W
09/05	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-3	2-4	6	3	L

De Treffers

DWDWWDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	3-0	5-0	4	2	W
19/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	2-1	3	3	W
12/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
05/09	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-2	7	6	D
29/08	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
23/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	5-1	6	2	W
23/05	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
16/05	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-1	8	1	W
09/05	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-0	8	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSV Hoek vs De Treffers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an De Treffers win (49%). Probabilities: HSV Hoek 27%, draw 23%, De Treffers 49%.

How many goals are expected in HSV Hoek vs De Treffers?

The model expects 3.28 goals (HSV Hoek 1.37 · De Treffers 1.91), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HSV Hoek vs De Treffers?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.