Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 03/10, 15:00

Prediction: Spakenburg vs Amsterdamsche FC

Team pages: Spakenburg · Amsterdamsche FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Spakenburg2

Amsterdamsche FC1.14

1X2

57% 22% 21%

Spakenburg Draw Amsterdamsche FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Spakenburg 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Amsterdamsche FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Spakenburg 2–4 Amsterdamsche FC (6 last)

Amsterdamsche FC2-0Spakenburg
Spakenburg2-1Amsterdamsche FC
Amsterdamsche FC1-0Spakenburg
Spakenburg1-2Amsterdamsche FC
Amsterdamsche FC1-3Spakenburg
Spakenburg0-2Amsterdamsche FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spakenburg 1502 · Amsterdamsche FC 1530

	Spakenburg	Draw	Amsterdamsche FC
Our model	56%	23%	20%
Market	58%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Amsterdamsche FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spakenburg	Amsterdamsche FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6	1.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.20

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +22’	1.55	4.20	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spakenburg 2–0–4 Amsterdamsche FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Spakenburg
25/10/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	2-1 HT 0-1	Amsterdamsche FC
22/02/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Spakenburg
28/09/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	1-2 HT 1-0	Amsterdamsche FC
03/02/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	1-3 HT 0-2	Spakenburg
09/09/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	0-2 HT 0-1	Amsterdamsche FC

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	7	6	0	1	19	4	18
2	De Treffers	7	4	3	0	19	6	15
3	Kozakken Boys	7	4	2	1	18	11	14
4	IJsselmeervogels	6	4	1	1	9	3	13
5	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	7	3	3	1	21	12	12
6	HHC Hardenberg	7	3	2	2	13	11	11
7	Barendrecht	7	3	2	2	12	10	11
8	Katwijk	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
9	Amsterdamsche FC	7	3	1	3	11	12	10
10	Spakenburg	7	3	1	3	9	11	10
11	RKAV Volendam	7	2	3	2	9	13	9
12	Rijnsburgse Boys	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
13	GVVV Veenendaal	6	2	0	4	11	16	6
14	Koninklijke HFC	7	1	3	3	9	13	6
15	HSV Hoek	7	1	3	3	8	12	6
16	Kloetinge	7	1	3	3	10	17	6
17	Almere City Reserves	7	1	1	5	11	16	4
18	ROHDA Raalte	7	0	1	6	6	20	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spakenburg	Amsterdamsche FC
Katwijk	1-0 W	0-1 L
Koninklijke HFC	2-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spakenburg

DWLWLWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-3	0-5	4	2	L
19/09	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
05/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
29/08	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
22/08	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
15/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
23/05	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-3	5	1	L
16/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	6	0	W
09/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-0	10	2	D

Amsterdamsche FC

WDLLWWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
19/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	3-1	6	0	W
12/09	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
05/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	1	8	L
29/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
22/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
23/05	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	2-3	7	1	L
16/05	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
09/05	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	4	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spakenburg vs Amsterdamsche FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spakenburg win (57%). Probabilities: Spakenburg 57%, draw 22%, Amsterdamsche FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Spakenburg vs Amsterdamsche FC?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Spakenburg 2 · Amsterdamsche FC 1.14), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Spakenburg vs Amsterdamsche FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.