Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 03/10, 15:00

Prediction: Barendrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Team pages: Barendrecht · Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.26Total

Barendrecht2.13

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves2.13

1X2

39% 22% 39%

Barendrecht Draw Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Barendrecht 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWDDW

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLDDDW

Head-to-head

Barendrecht 2–1–3 Sparta Rotterdam Reserves (6 last)

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves4-1Barendrecht
Barendrecht3-2Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Sparta Rotterdam Reserves2-0Barendrecht
Barendrecht5-3Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Barendrecht3-3Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Barendrecht1-4Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barendrecht 1522 · Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 1486

	Barendrecht	Draw	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Our model	39%	21%	39%
Market	39%	22%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 4.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sparta Rotterdam Reserves: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barendrecht	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	2.5 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.9	2.9 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.98

Under 3.751.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +22’	2.30	4.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barendrecht 2–1–3 Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	4-1 HT 1-0	Barendrecht
22/11/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Barendrecht	3-2 HT 2-0	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
22/03/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	2-0 HT 0-0	Barendrecht
19/10/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Barendrecht	5-3 HT 4-2	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
23/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Barendrecht	3-3 HT 1-0	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
08/02/24 Europe Friendlies	Barendrecht	1-4 HT 1-0	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	7	6	0	1	19	4	18
2	De Treffers	7	4	3	0	19	6	15
3	Kozakken Boys	7	4	2	1	18	11	14
4	IJsselmeervogels	6	4	1	1	9	3	13
5	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	7	3	3	1	21	12	12
6	HHC Hardenberg	7	3	2	2	13	11	11
7	Barendrecht	7	3	2	2	12	10	11
8	Katwijk	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
9	Amsterdamsche FC	7	3	1	3	11	12	10
10	Spakenburg	7	3	1	3	9	11	10
11	RKAV Volendam	7	2	3	2	9	13	9
12	Rijnsburgse Boys	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
13	GVVV Veenendaal	6	2	0	4	11	16	6
14	Koninklijke HFC	7	1	3	3	9	13	6
15	HSV Hoek	7	1	3	3	8	12	6
16	Kloetinge	7	1	3	3	10	17	6
17	Almere City Reserves	7	1	1	5	11	16	4
18	ROHDA Raalte	7	0	1	6	6	20	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barendrecht	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
HSV Hoek	1-1 D	3-0 W
Spakenburg	3-1 W	1-1 D
Katwijk	0-2 L	2-2 D
Koninklijke HFC	2-1 W	2-2 D
HHC Hardenberg	1-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barendrecht

WLLLWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	4-1	7	8	W
19/09	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	5	5	D
12/09	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
05/09	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
29/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-2	5	0	L
22/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-3	14	4	L
23/05	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
16/05	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-5	7	2	L
09/05	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	3-1	4-2	4	3	W

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

LLLWWLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	3-0	9	7	W
19/09	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	2-2	6	7	D
05/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
29/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	1-3	7	6	L
22/08	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	6-3	–	–	W
15/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	6-1	8	1	W
23/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-4	4	2	L
16/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-4	4	1	L
09/05	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	2-4	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barendrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barendrecht win (39%). Probabilities: Barendrecht 39%, draw 22%, Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 39%.

How many goals are expected in Barendrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam Reserves?

The model expects 4.26 goals (Barendrecht 2.13 · Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 2.13), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Barendrecht vs Sparta Rotterdam Reserves?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.