Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 07/11, 14:30

Prediction: HSV Hoek vs IJsselmeervogels

Team pages: HSV Hoek · IJsselmeervogels

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

HSV Hoek1.28

IJsselmeervogels1.44

1X2

34% 26% 41%

HSV Hoek Draw IJsselmeervogels

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

HSV Hoek 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLWLDL

IJsselmeervogels 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWLWWW

Head-to-head

HSV Hoek 1–1–1 IJsselmeervogels (3 last)

IJsselmeervogels2-1HSV Hoek
HSV Hoek2-1IJsselmeervogels
IJsselmeervogels0-0HSV Hoek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSV Hoek 1467 · IJsselmeervogels 1525

	HSV Hoek	Draw	IJsselmeervogels
Our model	32%	28%	40%
Market	34%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IJsselmeervogels (rating 1467 vs 1525).
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HSV Hoek	IJsselmeervogels
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.7	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.4	2.8 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.75

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:16 +6’	2.60	3.75	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HSV Hoek 1–1–1 IJsselmeervogels

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	IJsselmeervogels	2-1 HT 1-0	HSV Hoek
25/10/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	HSV Hoek	2-1 HT 0-1	IJsselmeervogels
20/09/22 Netherlands Cup	IJsselmeervogels	0-0 HT 0-0	HSV Hoek

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	11	9	1	1	32	8	28
2	De Treffers	11	6	4	1	30	14	22
3	IJsselmeervogels	11	7	1	3	16	10	22
4	Kozakken Boys	11	6	3	2	25	13	21
5	HHC Hardenberg	11	6	3	2	21	16	21
6	Barendrecht	11	6	2	3	20	17	20
7	GVVV Veenendaal	11	6	0	5	24	20	18
8	RKAV Volendam	11	5	3	3	21	20	18
9	Spakenburg	11	4	2	5	13	17	14
10	Katwijk	11	4	2	5	15	22	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	11	3	4	4	28	24	13
12	Almere City Reserves	11	4	1	6	22	21	13
13	Amsterdamsche FC	11	4	1	6	15	19	13
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	11	4	1	6	17	27	13
15	HSV Hoek	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
17	Kloetinge	11	1	4	6	16	29	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	11	0	1	10	9	33	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSV Hoek	IJsselmeervogels
Quick Boys	1-3 L	0-1 L
RKAV Volendam	1-2 L	1-1 D
Spakenburg	0-2 L	2-1 W
Katwijk	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: IJsselmeervogels (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSV Hoek

DLLDDLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-3	8	2	L
17/10	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
10/10	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-2	8	1	L
03/10	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
26/09	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-3	5	7	L
19/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
05/09	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	11	5	L
29/08	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
22/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	5	D

IJsselmeervogels

LDWLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
17/10	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
10/10	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
03/10	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-2	14	2	L
26/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	3-0	4	1	W
19/09	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	5	1	L
05/09	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
29/08	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
22/08	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-1	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSV Hoek vs IJsselmeervogels?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IJsselmeervogels win (41%). Probabilities: HSV Hoek 34%, draw 26%, IJsselmeervogels 41%.

How many goals are expected in HSV Hoek vs IJsselmeervogels?

The model expects 2.72 goals (HSV Hoek 1.28 · IJsselmeervogels 1.44), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in HSV Hoek vs IJsselmeervogels?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.