Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Kozakken Boys vs Spakenburg

Team pages: Kozakken Boys · Spakenburg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Kozakken Boys1.91

Spakenburg1.88

1X2

39% 23% 38%

Kozakken Boys Draw Spakenburg

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Kozakken Boys 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Spakenburg 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Kozakken Boys 1–2–3 Spakenburg (6 last)

Spakenburg3-4Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys1-2Spakenburg
Kozakken Boys0-3Spakenburg
Spakenburg3-1Kozakken Boys
Spakenburg1-1Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys5-5Spakenburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kozakken Boys 1566 · Spakenburg 1513

	Kozakken Boys	Draw	Spakenburg
Our model	39%	23%	38%
Market	39%	23%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kozakken Boys (rating 1566 vs 1513).
H2H favours Spakenburg: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kozakken Boys	Spakenburg
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/0/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.3	1.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	2.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.90

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.63 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +9’	2.30	3.90	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +13’	2.13	3.90	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kozakken Boys 1–2–3 Spakenburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	3-4 HT 3-1	Kozakken Boys
18/10/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Kozakken Boys	1-2 HT 0-1	Spakenburg
13/04/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Kozakken Boys	0-3 HT 0-0	Spakenburg
11/11/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	3-1 HT 2-0	Kozakken Boys
28/01/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	1-1 HT 0-1	Kozakken Boys
03/09/22 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Kozakken Boys	5-5 HT 3-4	Spakenburg

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	7	6	0	1	19	4	18
2	De Treffers	7	4	3	0	19	6	15
3	Kozakken Boys	7	4	2	1	18	11	14
4	IJsselmeervogels	6	4	1	1	9	3	13
5	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	7	3	3	1	21	12	12
6	HHC Hardenberg	7	3	2	2	13	11	11
7	Barendrecht	7	3	2	2	12	10	11
8	Katwijk	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
9	Amsterdamsche FC	7	3	1	3	11	12	10
10	Spakenburg	7	3	1	3	9	11	10
11	RKAV Volendam	7	2	3	2	9	13	9
12	Rijnsburgse Boys	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
13	GVVV Veenendaal	6	2	0	4	11	16	6
14	Koninklijke HFC	7	1	3	3	9	13	6
15	HSV Hoek	7	1	3	3	8	12	6
16	Kloetinge	7	1	3	3	10	17	6
17	Almere City Reserves	7	1	1	5	11	16	4
18	ROHDA Raalte	7	0	1	6	6	20	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kozakken Boys	Spakenburg
Katwijk	5-1 W	1-0 W
Koninklijke HFC	1-1 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kozakken Boys (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kozakken Boys

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	5-1	8	2	W
26/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
19/09	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	6-1	5	0	W
05/09	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
29/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	3-2	6	4	W
22/08	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	3-3	–	–	D
15/08	IJsselmeervogels Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
23/05	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
16/05	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	3-3	12	5	D

Spakenburg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	2-1	5	2	W
26/09	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-3	0-5	4	2	L
19/09	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
05/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
29/08	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
22/08	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
15/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
23/05	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-3	5	1	L
16/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kozakken Boys vs Spakenburg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kozakken Boys win (39%). Probabilities: Kozakken Boys 39%, draw 23%, Spakenburg 38%.

How many goals are expected in Kozakken Boys vs Spakenburg?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Kozakken Boys 1.91 · Spakenburg 1.88), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Kozakken Boys vs Spakenburg?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.