Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 17/10, 15:00

Prediction: Katwijk vs IJsselmeervogels

Team pages: Katwijk · IJsselmeervogels

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Katwijk1.43

IJsselmeervogels1.62

1X2

33% 25% 42%

Katwijk Draw IJsselmeervogels

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Katwijk 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWDLWLL

IJsselmeervogels 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Katwijk 5–1–0 IJsselmeervogels (6 last)

IJsselmeervogels2-3Katwijk
Katwijk3-0IJsselmeervogels
Katwijk4-0IJsselmeervogels
IJsselmeervogels0-0Katwijk
Katwijk2-0IJsselmeervogels
IJsselmeervogels0-2Katwijk

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Katwijk 1509 · IJsselmeervogels 1480

	Katwijk	Draw	IJsselmeervogels
Our model	33%	26%	41%
Market	34%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Katwijk: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Katwijk	IJsselmeervogels
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	2.8 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	2.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.75

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:28 +19’	2.63	3.75	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Katwijk 5–1–0 IJsselmeervogels

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	IJsselmeervogels	2-3 HT 2-1	Katwijk
27/09/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Katwijk	3-0 HT 1-0	IJsselmeervogels
11/03/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Katwijk	4-0 HT 1-0	IJsselmeervogels
24/09/22 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	IJsselmeervogels	0-0 HT 0-0	Katwijk
24/05/22 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Katwijk	2-0	IJsselmeervogels
06/11/21 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	IJsselmeervogels	0-2 HT 0-0	Katwijk

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	9	8	0	1	28	6	24
2	Kozakken Boys	9	6	2	1	25	12	20
3	De Treffers	9	5	3	1	24	9	18
4	IJsselmeervogels	9	5	1	3	12	8	16
5	GVVV Veenendaal	9	5	0	4	21	18	15
6	HHC Hardenberg	9	4	3	2	18	15	15
7	Barendrecht	9	4	2	3	15	16	14
8	Amsterdamsche FC	9	4	1	4	14	14	13
9	Spakenburg	9	4	1	4	11	14	13
10	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	9	3	3	3	24	19	12
11	RKAV Volendam	9	3	3	3	18	19	12
12	Katwijk	9	3	2	4	11	19	11
13	Almere City Reserves	9	3	1	5	19	18	10
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	9	3	1	5	16	26	10
15	HSV Hoek	9	2	3	4	11	15	9
16	Kloetinge	9	1	4	4	14	24	7
17	Koninklijke HFC	9	1	3	5	11	18	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	9	0	1	8	9	31	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Katwijk	IJsselmeervogels
Quick Boys	0-6 L	0-1 L
Kozakken Boys	1-5 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: IJsselmeervogels (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Katwijk

WLDWWDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-3	0-6	1	7	L
03/10	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-5	9	2	L
26/09	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
19/09	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	1-2	5	3	L
12/09	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	2-2	9	7	D
05/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	3-2	6	3	W
29/08	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
22/08	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
15/08	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
23/05	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	4-1	3	2	W

IJsselmeervogels

LWLDWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
03/10	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-2	14	2	L
26/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	3-0	4	1	W
19/09	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	5	1	L
05/09	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
29/08	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
22/08	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
15/08	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
23/05	ACV Assen Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-4	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Katwijk vs IJsselmeervogels?

According to our model, the most likely result is an IJsselmeervogels win (42%). Probabilities: Katwijk 33%, draw 25%, IJsselmeervogels 42%.

How many goals are expected in Katwijk vs IJsselmeervogels?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Katwijk 1.43 · IJsselmeervogels 1.62), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Katwijk vs IJsselmeervogels?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.