Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 17/10, 14:30

Prediction: HSV Hoek vs Kozakken Boys

Team pages: HSV Hoek · Kozakken Boys

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

HSV Hoek1.65

Kozakken Boys1.83

1X2

34% 24% 42%

HSV Hoek Draw Kozakken Boys

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

HSV Hoek 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDDLWL

Kozakken Boys 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLDWWWWDWW

Head-to-head

HSV Hoek 1–1 Kozakken Boys (2 last)

HSV Hoek1-2Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys1-3HSV Hoek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HSV Hoek 1494 · Kozakken Boys 1577

	HSV Hoek	Draw	Kozakken Boys
Our model	34%	24%	42%
Market	35%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kozakken Boys (rating 1494 vs 1577).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HSV Hoek	Kozakken Boys
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	2.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/0/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.80

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:22 +9’	2.60	3.80	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HSV Hoek 1–0–1 Kozakken Boys

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	HSV Hoek	1-2 HT 1-0	Kozakken Boys
08/11/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Kozakken Boys	1-3 HT 1-1	HSV Hoek

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	9	8	0	1	28	6	24
2	Kozakken Boys	9	6	2	1	25	12	20
3	De Treffers	9	5	3	1	24	9	18
4	IJsselmeervogels	9	5	1	3	12	8	16
5	GVVV Veenendaal	9	5	0	4	21	18	15
6	HHC Hardenberg	9	4	3	2	18	15	15
7	Barendrecht	9	4	2	3	15	16	14
8	Amsterdamsche FC	9	4	1	4	14	14	13
9	Spakenburg	9	4	1	4	11	14	13
10	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	9	3	3	3	24	19	12
11	RKAV Volendam	9	3	3	3	18	19	12
12	Katwijk	9	3	2	4	11	19	11
13	Almere City Reserves	9	3	1	5	19	18	10
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	9	3	1	5	16	26	10
15	HSV Hoek	9	2	3	4	11	15	9
16	Kloetinge	9	1	4	4	14	24	7
17	Koninklijke HFC	9	1	3	5	11	18	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	9	0	1	8	9	31	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HSV Hoek	Kozakken Boys
Spakenburg	0-2 L	2-0 W
Katwijk	1-1 D	5-1 W
Koninklijke HFC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Kozakken Boys (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HSV Hoek

DWDLLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-2	8	1	L
03/10	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
26/09	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-3	5	7	L
19/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
05/09	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	11	5	L
29/08	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
22/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
15/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
23/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-2	0	3	D

Kozakken Boys

LLDWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
03/10	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	5-1	8	2	W
26/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
19/09	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	6-1	5	0	W
05/09	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
29/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	3-2	6	4	W
22/08	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	3-3	–	–	D
15/08	IJsselmeervogels Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
23/05	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-2	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HSV Hoek vs Kozakken Boys?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kozakken Boys win (42%). Probabilities: HSV Hoek 34%, draw 24%, Kozakken Boys 42%.

How many goals are expected in HSV Hoek vs Kozakken Boys?

The model expects 3.47 goals (HSV Hoek 1.65 · Kozakken Boys 1.83), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in HSV Hoek vs Kozakken Boys?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.