Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: Sparta Rotterdam Reserves vs Katwijk

Team pages: Sparta Rotterdam Reserves · Katwijk

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.16Total

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves2.03

Katwijk2.14

1X2

37% 22% 41%

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Draw Katwijk

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLLWWLD

Katwijk 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLDWW

Head-to-head

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 2–3–1 Katwijk (6 last)

Katwijk1-1Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Katwijk4-1Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Sparta Rotterdam Reserves2-2Katwijk
Sparta Rotterdam Reserves1-1Katwijk
Katwijk2-4Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
Katwijk3-4Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 1483 · Katwijk 1528

	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	Draw	Katwijk
Our model	37%	22%	41%
Market	36%	23%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 4.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Katwijk (rating 1483 vs 1528).
H2H favours Sparta Rotterdam Reserves: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	Katwijk
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2.5	2.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	3.3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.90

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.65 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.13
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +19’	2.45	3.90	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:40 +162’	2.65	4.13	2.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 2–3–1 Katwijk

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Katwijk	1-1 HT 1-1	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
23/05/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Katwijk	4-1 HT 1-1	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
13/12/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	2-2 HT 1-1	Katwijk
15/02/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	1-1 HT 0-1	Katwijk
21/09/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Katwijk	2-4 HT 0-2	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves
04/05/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Katwijk	3-4 HT 2-1	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	HHC Hardenberg	4	3	1	0	10	5	10
3	De Treffers	4	2	2	0	11	4	8
4	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	4	2	1	1	15	9	7
5	Katwijk	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
6	IJsselmeervogels	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Kozakken Boys	4	2	1	1	9	8	7
8	RKAV Volendam	4	2	1	1	5	8	7
9	Spakenburg	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
10	Barendrecht	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
11	Amsterdamsche FC	4	2	0	2	6	8	6
12	HSV Hoek	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
13	Koninklijke HFC	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	4	1	1	2	7	11	4
15	Kloetinge	4	1	1	2	6	10	4
16	Almere City Reserves	4	1	0	3	8	7	3
17	GVVV Veenendaal	4	0	0	4	5	14	0
18	ROHDA Raalte	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	Katwijk
Koninklijke HFC	2-2 D	4-0 W
Rijnsburgse Boys	6-3 W	3-2 W
De Treffers	1-4 L	1-4 L
Barendrecht	4-1 W	2-0 W
Almere City Reserves	0-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

WLWLLLWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
29/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	1-3	7	6	L
22/08	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	6-3	–	–	W
15/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	6-1	8	1	W
23/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-4	4	2	L
16/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-4	4	1	L
09/05	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	2-4	4	1	L
25/04	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
18/04	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
11/04	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-0	3	3	W

Katwijk

WLWWLWLDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	3-2	6	3	W
29/08	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
22/08	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
15/08	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
23/05	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	4-1	3	2	W
16/05	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	2	0	L
09/05	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	4-0	14	1	W
25/04	ACV Assen Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	6	3	W
18/04	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-4	8	6	L
11/04	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	14	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Rotterdam Reserves vs Katwijk?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Katwijk win (41%). Probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 37%, draw 22%, Katwijk 41%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Rotterdam Reserves vs Katwijk?

The model expects 4.16 goals (Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 2.03 · Katwijk 2.14), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam Reserves vs Katwijk?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.