Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 10/10, 15:15

Prediction: Amsterdamsche FC vs HSV Hoek

Team pages: Amsterdamsche FC · HSV Hoek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Amsterdamsche FC1.59

HSV Hoek1.82

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Amsterdamsche FC Draw HSV Hoek

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Amsterdamsche FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLDWLL

HSV Hoek 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLDDLW

Head-to-head

Amsterdamsche FC 0–1–1 HSV Hoek (2 last)

Amsterdamsche FC1-5HSV Hoek
HSV Hoek2-2Amsterdamsche FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Amsterdamsche FC 1496 · HSV Hoek 1530

	Amsterdamsche FC	Draw	HSV Hoek
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Amsterdamsche FC	HSV Hoek
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.6	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.70

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.73
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.17 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:32 +6’	2.70	3.70	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:42 +55’	2.73	3.58	2.17

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Amsterdamsche FC 0–1–1 HSV Hoek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Amsterdamsche FC	1-5 HT 0-4	HSV Hoek
15/11/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	HSV Hoek	2-2 HT 1-0	Amsterdamsche FC

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	7	6	0	1	19	4	18
2	De Treffers	7	4	3	0	19	6	15
3	Kozakken Boys	7	4	2	1	18	11	14
4	IJsselmeervogels	6	4	1	1	9	3	13
5	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	7	3	3	1	21	12	12
6	HHC Hardenberg	7	3	2	2	13	11	11
7	Barendrecht	7	3	2	2	12	10	11
8	Katwijk	7	3	2	2	10	8	11
9	Amsterdamsche FC	7	3	1	3	11	12	10
10	Spakenburg	7	3	1	3	9	11	10
11	RKAV Volendam	7	2	3	2	9	13	9
12	Rijnsburgse Boys	7	2	1	4	11	21	7
13	GVVV Veenendaal	6	2	0	4	11	16	6
14	Koninklijke HFC	7	1	3	3	9	13	6
15	HSV Hoek	7	1	3	3	8	12	6
16	Kloetinge	7	1	3	3	10	17	6
17	Almere City Reserves	7	1	1	5	11	16	4
18	ROHDA Raalte	7	0	1	6	6	20	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Amsterdamsche FC	HSV Hoek
Spakenburg	1-2 L	0-2 L
Katwijk	0-1 L	1-1 D
Koninklijke HFC	3-1 W	3-1 W
Rijnsburgse Boys	0-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: HSV Hoek (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Amsterdamsche FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
26/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
19/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	3-1	6	0	W
12/09	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-2	6	3	D
05/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	1	8	L
29/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
22/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
23/05	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	2-3	7	1	L
16/05	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	4	0	D

HSV Hoek

WDWDLLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
26/09	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-3	5	7	L
19/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
05/09	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	11	5	L
29/08	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
22/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
15/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
23/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
16/05	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Amsterdamsche FC vs HSV Hoek?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HSV Hoek win (43%). Probabilities: Amsterdamsche FC 33%, draw 24%, HSV Hoek 43%.

How many goals are expected in Amsterdamsche FC vs HSV Hoek?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Amsterdamsche FC 1.59 · HSV Hoek 1.82), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Amsterdamsche FC vs HSV Hoek?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.