Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: Almere City Reserves vs Kozakken Boys

Team pages: Almere City Reserves · Kozakken Boys

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

Almere City Reserves1.68

Kozakken Boys1.96

1X2

33% 24% 44%

Almere City Reserves Draw Kozakken Boys

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Almere City Reserves 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLWWLW

Kozakken Boys 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDWWDL

Head-to-head

Almere City Reserves 4–1–1 Kozakken Boys (6 last)

Almere City Reserves3-1Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys0-3Almere City Reserves
Kozakken Boys3-4Almere City Reserves
Almere City Reserves1-1Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys3-1Almere City Reserves
Almere City Reserves2-1Kozakken Boys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Almere City Reserves 1492 · Kozakken Boys 1551

	Almere City Reserves	Draw	Kozakken Boys
Our model	33%	23%	44%
Market	33%	24%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kozakken Boys (rating 1492 vs 1551).
H2H favours Almere City Reserves: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Almere City Reserves	Kozakken Boys
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.1	2.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.75

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:00 +23’	2.75	3.75	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Almere City Reserves 4–1–1 Kozakken Boys

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	3-1 HT 1-0	Kozakken Boys
06/09/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Kozakken Boys	0-3 HT 0-1	Almere City Reserves
23/03/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Kozakken Boys	3-4 HT 0-2	Almere City Reserves
14/10/23 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	1-1 HT 1-0	Kozakken Boys
06/04/19 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Kozakken Boys	3-1	Almere City Reserves
15/12/18 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	2-1 HT 1-0	Kozakken Boys

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	11	9	1	1	32	8	28
2	De Treffers	11	6	4	1	30	14	22
3	IJsselmeervogels	11	7	1	3	16	10	22
4	Kozakken Boys	11	6	3	2	25	13	21
5	HHC Hardenberg	11	6	3	2	21	16	21
6	Barendrecht	11	6	2	3	20	17	20
7	GVVV Veenendaal	11	6	0	5	24	20	18
8	RKAV Volendam	11	5	3	3	21	20	18
9	Spakenburg	11	4	2	5	13	17	14
10	Katwijk	11	4	2	5	15	22	14
11	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	11	3	4	4	28	24	13
12	Almere City Reserves	11	4	1	6	22	21	13
13	Amsterdamsche FC	11	4	1	6	15	19	13
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	11	4	1	6	17	27	13
15	HSV Hoek	11	2	4	5	12	18	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
17	Kloetinge	11	1	4	6	16	29	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	11	0	1	10	9	33	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Almere City Reserves	Kozakken Boys
Barendrecht	1-4 L	0-1 L
HSV Hoek	2-2 D	0-0 D
Spakenburg	0-3 L	2-0 W
Katwijk	2-3 L	5-1 W
Koninklijke HFC	1-2 L	1-1 D
HHC Hardenberg	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kozakken Boys (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Almere City Reserves

LLLLDLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
17/10	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-3	4	1	L
10/10	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-1	10	4	W
03/10	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
26/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-4	0	8	L
19/09	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
05/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	2-3	1	3	L
29/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-2	–	–	L

Kozakken Boys

DWWWWDWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
17/10	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
10/10	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
03/10	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	5-1	8	2	W
26/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
19/09	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	6-1	5	0	W
05/09	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
29/08	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	3-2	6	4	W
22/08	Kloetinge Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Almere City Reserves vs Kozakken Boys?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Kozakken Boys win (44%). Probabilities: Almere City Reserves 33%, draw 24%, Kozakken Boys 44%.

How many goals are expected in Almere City Reserves vs Kozakken Boys?

The model expects 3.64 goals (Almere City Reserves 1.68 · Kozakken Boys 1.96), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Almere City Reserves vs Kozakken Boys?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.