Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: Almere City Reserves vs Spakenburg

Team pages: Almere City Reserves · Spakenburg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Almere City Reserves1.63

Spakenburg1.81

1X2

35% 24% 42%

Almere City Reserves Draw Spakenburg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Almere City Reserves 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWLLL

Spakenburg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDWLWLWL

Head-to-head

Almere City Reserves 3–1–2 Spakenburg (6 last)

Spakenburg1-0Almere City Reserves
Almere City Reserves4-2Spakenburg
Almere City Reserves3-1Spakenburg
Spakenburg2-0Almere City Reserves
Spakenburg0-1Almere City Reserves
Almere City Reserves2-2Spakenburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Almere City Reserves 1504 · Spakenburg 1519

	Almere City Reserves	Draw	Spakenburg
Our model	34%	24%	41%
Market	35%	23%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Almere City Reserves: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Almere City Reserves	Spakenburg
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	3.4 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	1.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.90

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 3.93 ★
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:20 +1’	2.60	3.90	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:30 +111’	2.59	3.93	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Almere City Reserves 3–1–2 Spakenburg

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	1-0 HT 0-0	Almere City Reserves
08/11/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	4-2 HT 2-0	Spakenburg
17/05/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	3-1 HT 2-0	Spakenburg
07/12/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Spakenburg	2-0 HT 1-0	Almere City Reserves
10/08/24 Europe Friendlies	Spakenburg	0-1 HT 0-1	Almere City Reserves
30/03/24 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Almere City Reserves	2-2 HT 2-1	Spakenburg

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	HHC Hardenberg	4	3	1	0	10	5	10
3	De Treffers	4	2	2	0	11	4	8
4	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	4	2	1	1	15	9	7
5	Katwijk	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
6	IJsselmeervogels	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Kozakken Boys	4	2	1	1	9	8	7
8	RKAV Volendam	4	2	1	1	5	8	7
9	Spakenburg	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
10	Barendrecht	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
11	Amsterdamsche FC	4	2	0	2	6	8	6
12	HSV Hoek	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
13	Koninklijke HFC	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	4	1	1	2	7	11	4
15	Kloetinge	4	1	1	2	6	10	4
16	Almere City Reserves	4	1	0	3	8	7	3
17	GVVV Veenendaal	4	0	0	4	5	14	0
18	ROHDA Raalte	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Almere City Reserves	Spakenburg
Katwijk	2-3 L	1-0 W
Koninklijke HFC	1-2 L	2-3 L
Rijnsburgse Boys	4-0 W	3-2 W
RKAV Volendam	3-2 W	1-2 L
HSV Hoek	0-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Almere City Reserves

LWLWWWWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	2-3	1	3	L
29/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
22/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	4-0	2	2	W
23/05	GVVV Veenendaal Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-2	5-4	6	1	W
16/05	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
09/05	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	3-2	7	4	W
25/04	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-4	3	1	L
18/04	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	3-0	5	2	W
11/04	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-1	4	1	L

Spakenburg

WWWDWLWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
29/08	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
22/08	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	7	2	L
15/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
23/05	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-3	5	1	L
16/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	6	0	W
09/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
25/04	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	3-2	7	5	W
18/04	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	3-0	7	1	W
11/04	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-0	12	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Almere City Reserves vs Spakenburg?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Spakenburg win (42%). Probabilities: Almere City Reserves 35%, draw 24%, Spakenburg 42%.

How many goals are expected in Almere City Reserves vs Spakenburg?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Almere City Reserves 1.63 · Spakenburg 1.81), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Almere City Reserves vs Spakenburg?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.