Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 26/09, 15:00

Prediction: Sparta Rotterdam Reserves vs HSV Hoek

Team pages: Sparta Rotterdam Reserves · HSV Hoek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.16Total

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves2.08

HSV Hoek2.08

1X2

39% 22% 39%

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Draw HSV Hoek

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWLDDD

HSV Hoek 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDLLDD

Head-to-head

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 0–1–1 HSV Hoek (2 last)

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves1-4HSV Hoek
HSV Hoek0-0Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 1471 · HSV Hoek 1516

	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	Draw	HSV Hoek
Our model	39%	22%	39%
Market	39%	23%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 4.16 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HSV Hoek (rating 1471 vs 1516).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	HSV Hoek
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2.5	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.90

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.54 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.08
2	2.00 → 2.30▲	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:07 +57’	2.75	3.90	2.00
17:49 +6’	2.30▼	3.90	2.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:49 +66’	2.54	4.08	2.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 0–1–1 HSV Hoek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	1-4 HT 1-1	HSV Hoek
06/09/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	HSV Hoek	0-0 HT 0-0	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	6	5	0	1	17	4	15
2	Kozakken Boys	6	4	1	1	17	10	13
3	De Treffers	6	3	3	0	14	6	12
4	HHC Hardenberg	6	3	2	1	13	9	11
5	IJsselmeervogels	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
6	Spakenburg	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
7	Amsterdamsche FC	6	3	1	2	11	11	10
8	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	6	2	3	1	18	12	9
9	RKAV Volendam	6	2	3	1	7	10	9
10	Katwijk	6	2	2	2	9	8	8
11	Barendrecht	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
12	Rijnsburgse Boys	6	2	1	3	11	18	7
13	HSV Hoek	6	1	3	2	8	9	6
14	Koninklijke HFC	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
15	Kloetinge	6	1	2	3	7	14	5
16	Almere City Reserves	6	1	1	4	10	12	4
17	GVVV Veenendaal	5	1	0	4	8	14	3
18	ROHDA Raalte	6	0	0	6	3	17	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	HSV Hoek
Spakenburg	1-1 D	0-2 L
Katwijk	2-2 D	1-1 D
Koninklijke HFC	2-2 D	3-1 W
Rijnsburgse Boys	6-3 W	2-0 W
De Treffers	1-4 L	2-2 D
Barendrecht	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Rotterdam Reserves (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sparta Rotterdam Reserves

WLLLWWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
12/09	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	2-2	6	7	D
05/09	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	2-2	5	3	D
29/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	1-3	7	6	L
22/08	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-1	6-3	–	–	W
15/08	ROHDA Raalte Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	6-1	8	1	W
23/05	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	1-4	4	2	L
16/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-4	4	1	L
09/05	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-2	2-4	4	1	L
25/04	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	4-1	5	5	W

HSV Hoek

WLWDWDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
05/09	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	11	5	L
29/08	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
22/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
15/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
23/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
16/05	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	0	W
09/05	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-3	2-4	6	3	L
25/04	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	4-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Rotterdam Reserves vs HSV Hoek?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Rotterdam Reserves win (39%). Probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 39%, draw 22%, HSV Hoek 39%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Rotterdam Reserves vs HSV Hoek?

The model expects 4.16 goals (Sparta Rotterdam Reserves 2.08 · HSV Hoek 2.08), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam Reserves vs HSV Hoek?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.