Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: Barendrecht vs HSV Hoek

Team pages: Barendrecht · HSV Hoek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.61Total

Barendrecht1.59

HSV Hoek2.02

1X2

30% 23% 47%

Barendrecht Draw HSV Hoek

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Barendrecht 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLWLW

HSV Hoek 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWDWDLL

Head-to-head

Barendrecht 1–1–0 HSV Hoek (2 last)

Barendrecht4-2HSV Hoek
HSV Hoek1-1Barendrecht

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barendrecht 1472 · HSV Hoek 1511

	Barendrecht	Draw	HSV Hoek
Our model	30%	23%	47%
Market	30%	23%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.61 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barendrecht	HSV Hoek
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.4	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 7.3	2.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.90

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.05
2	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.00 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:18 +2’	3.00	3.90	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:40 +161’	2.80	4.05	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barendrecht 1–1–0 HSV Hoek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	Barendrecht	4-2 HT 3-1	HSV Hoek
29/11/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	HSV Hoek	1-1 HT 1-0	Barendrecht

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	4	4	0	0	13	0	12
2	HHC Hardenberg	4	3	1	0	10	5	10
3	De Treffers	4	2	2	0	11	4	8
4	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	4	2	1	1	15	9	7
5	Katwijk	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
6	IJsselmeervogels	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Kozakken Boys	4	2	1	1	9	8	7
8	RKAV Volendam	4	2	1	1	5	8	7
9	Spakenburg	4	2	0	2	5	5	6
10	Barendrecht	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
11	Amsterdamsche FC	4	2	0	2	6	8	6
12	HSV Hoek	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
13	Koninklijke HFC	4	1	1	2	6	8	4
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	4	1	1	2	7	11	4
15	Kloetinge	4	1	1	2	6	10	4
16	Almere City Reserves	4	1	0	3	8	7	3
17	GVVV Veenendaal	4	0	0	4	5	14	0
18	ROHDA Raalte	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barendrecht	HSV Hoek
Spakenburg	3-1 W	0-2 L
Katwijk	0-2 L	1-1 D
Koninklijke HFC	2-1 W	3-1 W
RKAV Volendam	2-5 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: HSV Hoek (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barendrecht

WLLWLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
29/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-2	5	0	L
22/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	HHC Hardenberg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	1-3	14	4	L
23/05	Excelsior Maassluis Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-2	4	7	L
16/05	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-5	7	2	L
09/05	HSV Hoek Netherlands Tweede Divisie	3-1	4-2	4	3	W
25/04	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-4	8	5	L
18/04	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-3	5	1	L
11/04	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	2-1	11	3	W

HSV Hoek

LWWLWDWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	RKAV Volendam Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-2	11	5	L
29/08	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
22/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
15/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
23/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
16/05	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	0	W
09/05	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-3	2-4	6	3	L
25/04	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	4-0	2	1	W
18/04	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	4-0	5-1	3	2	W
11/04	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barendrecht vs HSV Hoek?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HSV Hoek win (47%). Probabilities: Barendrecht 30%, draw 23%, HSV Hoek 47%.

How many goals are expected in Barendrecht vs HSV Hoek?

The model expects 3.61 goals (Barendrecht 1.59 · HSV Hoek 2.02), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Barendrecht vs HSV Hoek?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.