Football · Netherlands Tweede Divisie · 05/09, 14:30

Prediction: RKAV Volendam vs HSV Hoek

Team pages: RKAV Volendam · HSV Hoek

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

RKAV Volendam1.44

HSV Hoek1.68

1X2

33% 24% 43%

RKAV Volendam Draw HSV Hoek

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

RKAV Volendam 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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HSV Hoek 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

RKAV Volendam 1–1 HSV Hoek (2 last)

HSV Hoek1-0RKAV Volendam
RKAV Volendam2-1HSV Hoek

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RKAV Volendam 1434 · HSV Hoek 1532

	RKAV Volendam	Draw	HSV Hoek
Our model	32%	26%	42%
Market	33%	23%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HSV Hoek (rating 1434 vs 1532).
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RKAV Volendam	HSV Hoek
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.5	2.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.80

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 2.70▼	Pinn 2.83 ★
X	3.90 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
2	1.85 → 2.05▲	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:49 +5’	3.10	3.90	1.85
19:24 +21’	2.70▼	3.80▼	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:45 +1’	2.83	3.78	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · RKAV Volendam 1–0–1 HSV Hoek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	HSV Hoek	1-0 HT 0-0	RKAV Volendam
20/09/25 Netherlands Tweede Divisie	RKAV Volendam	2-1 HT 0-0	HSV Hoek

Standings · Netherlands Tweede Divisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Quick Boys	3	3	0	0	10	0	9
2	HHC Hardenberg	3	3	0	0	8	3	9
3	De Treffers	3	2	1	0	9	2	7
4	Sparta Rotterdam Reserves	3	2	0	1	13	7	6
5	Spakenburg	3	2	0	1	4	2	6
6	Amsterdamsche FC	3	2	0	1	6	5	6
7	Katwijk	3	1	1	1	3	2	4
8	Kozakken Boys	3	1	1	1	7	7	4
9	HSV Hoek	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
10	IJsselmeervogels	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
11	Kloetinge	3	1	1	1	6	8	4
12	RKAV Volendam	3	1	1	1	3	7	4
13	Almere City Reserves	3	1	0	2	6	4	3
14	Koninklijke HFC	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
15	Barendrecht	3	1	0	2	3	6	3
16	Rijnsburgse Boys	3	0	1	2	4	11	1
17	GVVV Veenendaal	3	0	0	3	5	11	0
18	ROHDA Raalte	3	0	0	3	1	11	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RKAV Volendam	HSV Hoek
Spakenburg	2-1 W	0-2 L
Rijnsburgse Boys	0-7 L	2-0 W
Barendrecht	5-2 W	2-4 L
Almere City Reserves	2-3 L	4-0 W
Amsterdamsche FC	0-3 L	5-1 W
Kozakken Boys	0-0 D	1-2 L
De Treffers	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HSV Hoek (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RKAV Volendam

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	IJsselmeervogels Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
22/08	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
15/08	Quick Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
23/05	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-3	0-7	3	0	L
16/05	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	5-2	2	2	W
09/05	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	2-0	2-3	1	4	L
25/04	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
18/04	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
11/04	IJsselmeervogels Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
04/04	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-1	0-1	4	4	L

HSV Hoek

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Spakenburg Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
22/08	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
15/08	Koninklijke HFC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
23/05	De Treffers Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-1	2-2	0	3	D
16/05	Rijnsburgse Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	0	W
09/05	Barendrecht Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-3	2-4	6	3	L
25/04	Almere City Reserves Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	4-0	2	1	W
18/04	Amsterdamsche FC Netherlands Tweede Divisie	4-0	5-1	3	2	W
11/04	Kozakken Boys Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	1-2	8	3	L
04/04	Katwijk Netherlands Tweede Divisie	1-0	2-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RKAV Volendam vs HSV Hoek?

According to our model, the most likely result is an HSV Hoek win (43%). Probabilities: RKAV Volendam 33%, draw 24%, HSV Hoek 43%.

How many goals are expected in RKAV Volendam vs HSV Hoek?

The model expects 3.12 goals (RKAV Volendam 1.44 · HSV Hoek 1.68), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in RKAV Volendam vs HSV Hoek?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.