Football · South Korea Cup · 15/07, 12:00
Prediction: Seongnam FC vs Pocheon Citizen FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Seongnam FC1.49
Pocheon Citizen FC0.87
1X2
Seongnam FC
Draw
Pocheon Citizen FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Seongnam FC
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Pocheon Citizen FC
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Seongnam FC
1–0
Pocheon Citizen FC
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Seongnam FC 1465 · Pocheon Citizen FC 1591
| Seongnam FC | Draw | Pocheon Citizen FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 29% | 21% |
| Market | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pocheon Citizen FC (rating 1465 vs 1591).
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Seongnam FC | Pocheon Citizen FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.2 | 2.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.3 | 2.6 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.5 | 3.6 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Seongnam FC 1–0–0 Pocheon Citizen FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/24 South Korea Cup | Pocheon Citizen FC | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Seongnam FC |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Seongnam FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Daegu FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Suwon Bluewings South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 05/06 | Gimhae FC 2008 South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Suwon FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Seoul E-Land FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Gyeongnam FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Jeonnam Dragons South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Yongin FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Cheonan City South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Paju Frontier FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
Pocheon Citizen FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Daejeon Korail South Korea Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 28/06 | Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3 League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Gyeongju HNP South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
2-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Busan Trans Corp South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/05 | Changwon City South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 23/05 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Changwon City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Seongnam FC vs Pocheon Citizen FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Seongnam FC win (51%). Probabilities: Seongnam FC 51%, draw 27%, Pocheon Citizen FC 22%.
How many goals are expected in Seongnam FC vs Pocheon Citizen FC?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Seongnam FC 1.49 · Pocheon Citizen FC 0.87), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Pocheon Citizen FC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.