Football · South Korea Cup · 15/07, 12:00
Prediction: Hwaseong FC vs Yangpyeong FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
Hwaseong FC1.98
Yangpyeong FC0.81
1X2
Hwaseong FC
Draw
Yangpyeong FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Hwaseong FC
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Yangpyeong FC
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hwaseong FC
5–1
Yangpyeong FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hwaseong FC 1530 · Yangpyeong FC 1474
| Hwaseong FC | Draw | Yangpyeong FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | 64% | 22% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hwaseong FC (rating 1530 vs 1474).
- H2H favours Hwaseong FC: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hwaseong FC | Yangpyeong FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.9 | 2.7 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 5.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hwaseong FC 5–0–1 Yangpyeong FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/24 South Korea K3 League | Hwaseong FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Yangpyeong FC |
| 28/04/24 South Korea K3 League | Yangpyeong FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Hwaseong FC |
| 16/09/23 South Korea K3 League | Hwaseong FC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Yangpyeong FC |
| 21/05/23 South Korea K3 League | Yangpyeong FC | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Hwaseong FC |
| 16/11/19 South Korea K3 League | Hwaseong FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Yangpyeong FC |
| 09/11/19 South Korea K3 League | Yangpyeong FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Hwaseong FC |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hwaseong FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Paju Frontier FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | Suwon Bluewings South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Gyeongnam FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Chungbuk Cheongju South Korea K League 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Busan I Park South Korea K League 2 |
2-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Suwon FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Ansan Greeners FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Seoul E-Land FC South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Gimpo FC South Korea K League 2 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 11/04 | Jeonnam Dragons South Korea K League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Yangpyeong FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Jeonbuk Motors II South Korea K3 League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Ulsan Nam Gu FC South Korea Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 3 | D |
| 27/06 | Chuncheon FC South Korea K3 League |
0-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 20/06 | Yeoju South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 07/06 | Mokpo City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | Dangjin Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Gangneung City South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Ulsan Citizen FC South Korea K3 League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 09/05 | Changwon City South Korea K3 League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | Sejong SA South Korea K3/K4 Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hwaseong FC vs Yangpyeong FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hwaseong FC win (64%). Probabilities: Hwaseong FC 64%, draw 23%, Yangpyeong FC 14%.
How many goals are expected in Hwaseong FC vs Yangpyeong FC?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Hwaseong FC 1.98 · Yangpyeong FC 0.81), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hwaseong FC vs Yangpyeong FC?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.