Prediction: LDU Quito (W) vs Deportivo Ibarra (W)
Expected goals: 4.41 (LDU Quito (W) 3.2 · Deportivo Ibarra (W) 1.2). The model gives 85% home, 9% draw, 6% away. Over 4 goals (54%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 3-1.
Recent form leaves LDU Quito (W) with 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses over 10 games; Deportivo Ibarra (W) has piled up 6-1-3 in the same span. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings the record reads 4 wins for LDU Quito (W) and 0 for Deportivo Ibarra (W), with 1 draw.
| LDU Quito (W) | Draw | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 92% | 6% | 2% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LDU Quito (W) (rating 1611 vs 1525).
- H2H favours LDU Quito (W): 4-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| LDU Quito (W) | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4 / 0.5 | 2.1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3 | 2.2 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.6 | 2.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · LDU Quito (W) 4–1–0 Deportivo Ibarra (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 0-2 | LDU Quito (W) |
| 06/08/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 1-4 HT 1-1 | LDU Quito (W) |
| 19/04/25 Ecuador Primera Women | LDU Quito (W) | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) |
| 22/07/23 Ecuador Primera Women | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | LDU Quito (W) |
| 03/06/23 Ecuador Primera Women | LDU Quito (W) | 4-2 HT 2-0 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) |
Standings · Ecuador Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU Quito (W) | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 64 | 5 | 37 |
| 2 | Independiente del Valle (W) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 3 | 34 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 8 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 27 | 23 |
| 6 | Carneras UPS (W) | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 16 |
| 7 | Macara (W) | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 13 |
| 8 | Emelec (W) | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 55 | 10 |
| 9 | CD Espuce (W) | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 4 |
| 10 | EL Nacional (W) | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 39 | 3 |
| 11 | Quito FC (W) | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 3 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca Women | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | LDU Quito (W) | Deportivo Ibarra (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Emelec (W) | 12-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Carneras UPS (W) | 1-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 1-1 D | 0-5 L |
| CD Espuce (W) | 5-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Macara (W) | 3-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Quito FC (W) | 3-0 W | 6-1 W |
| Independiente del Valle (W) | 1-2 L | 0-7 L |
| EL Nacional (W) | 10-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 1 L | 5 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: LDU Quito (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
LDU Quito (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 12-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/06 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 30/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
4-1 | 10-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 04/04 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Deportivo Ibarra (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/06 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/05 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 24/04 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-4 | 0-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/04 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in LDU Quito (W) vs Deportivo Ibarra (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a LDU Quito (W) win (85%). Probabilities: LDU Quito (W) 85%, draw 9%, Deportivo Ibarra (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in LDU Quito (W) vs Deportivo Ibarra (W)?
The model expects 4.41 goals (LDU Quito (W) 3.2 · Deportivo Ibarra (W) 1.2), with a 54% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in LDU Quito (W) vs Deportivo Ibarra (W)?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.