Prediction: Independiente del Valle (W) vs Macara (W)
Expected goals: 4.65 (Independiente del Valle (W) 3.33 · Macara (W) 1.33). The model gives 86% home, 9% draw, 6% away. Under 4.75 goals (54%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 3-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Independiente del Valle (W) sits at 9-1-0 (W-D-L), while Macara (W) arrives on a 4-0-6 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Independiente del Valle (W) won 5 and Macara (W) 0, with 1 draw.
| Independiente del Valle (W) | Draw | Macara (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 94% | 5% | 1% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Independiente del Valle (W) (rating 1644 vs 1458).
- H2H favours Independiente del Valle (W): 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Independiente del Valle (W) | Macara (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4.2 / 0.4 | 1.6 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.1 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 71/29/0% | 43/0/57% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.3 | 0.7 / 2.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 3.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente del Valle (W) 5–1–0 Macara (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Ecuador Primera Women | Macara (W) | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 06/06/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Macara (W) | 0-3 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 22/03/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 4-0 | Macara (W) |
| 08/07/23 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 4-0 HT 4-0 | Macara (W) |
| 27/05/23 Ecuador Primera Women | Macara (W) | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Independiente del Valle (W) |
| 26/03/22 Ecuador Primera Women | Independiente del Valle (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Macara (W) |
Standings · Ecuador Primera Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU Quito (W) | 14 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 64 | 5 | 37 |
| 2 | Independiente del Valle (W) | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 3 | 34 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 5 | 34 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 8 | 28 |
| 5 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 27 | 23 |
| 6 | Carneras UPS (W) | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 16 |
| 7 | Macara (W) | 14 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 13 |
| 8 | Emelec (W) | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 55 | 10 |
| 9 | CD Espuce (W) | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 38 | 4 |
| 10 | EL Nacional (W) | 10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 39 | 3 |
| 11 | Quito FC (W) | 12 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 3 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca Women | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Independiente del Valle (W) | Macara (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) | 2-1 W | 0-6 L |
| Emelec (W) | 13-0 W | 4-1 W |
| CD Espuce (W) | 5-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Carneras UPS (W) | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| LDU Quito (W) | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Barcelona Guayaquil (W) | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 7-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Independiente del Valle (W) (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Independiente del Valle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 24/06 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
5-0 | 13-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 24/04 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 28/03 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 13 | 2 | W |
Macara (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 24/06 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/06 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 08/05 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
3-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 24/04 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/04 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Independiente del Valle (W) vs Macara (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente del Valle (W) win (86%). Probabilities: Independiente del Valle (W) 86%, draw 9%, Macara (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Independiente del Valle (W) vs Macara (W)?
The model expects 4.65 goals (Independiente del Valle (W) 3.33 · Macara (W) 1.33), with a 54% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Independiente del Valle (W) vs Macara (W)?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.