Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 27/09, 18:15

Prediction: Pontevedra vs Ponferradina

Team pages: Pontevedra · Ponferradina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Pontevedra1.44

Ponferradina1.26

1X2

39% 29% 31%

Pontevedra Draw Ponferradina

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Pontevedra 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWLDWWLD

Ponferradina 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Pontevedra 2–2–2 Ponferradina (6 last)

Pontevedra3-1Ponferradina
Ponferradina0-1Pontevedra
Ponferradina4-3Pontevedra
Ponferradina1-0Pontevedra
Pontevedra0-0Ponferradina
Pontevedra2-2Ponferradina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pontevedra 1522 · Ponferradina 1500

	Pontevedra	Draw	Ponferradina
Our model	40%	28%	32%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pontevedra	Ponferradina
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.1	1.5 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.5	5.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.73

2 (0)2.08

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:31 +2’	2.30	3.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pontevedra 2–2–2 Ponferradina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Pontevedra	3-1 HT 2-0	Ponferradina
06/09/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Ponferradina	0-1 HT 0-0	Pontevedra
18/09/24 Europe Friendlies	Ponferradina	4-3 HT 1-0	Pontevedra
03/03/19 Spain Segunda B Group 1	Ponferradina	1-0 HT 0-0	Pontevedra
14/10/18 Spain Segunda B Group 1	Pontevedra	0-0 HT 0-0	Ponferradina
18/03/18 Spain Segunda B Group 1	Pontevedra	2-2 HT 1-1	Ponferradina

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UD Logrones	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
2	Cacereno	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
3	Lugo	4	3	1	0	6	2	10
4	Athletic Bilbao B	4	2	2	0	8	5	8
5	Real Unión	4	2	1	1	12	8	7
6	Mirandes	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
7	Pontevedra	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
8	Racing Ferrol	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
9	Ponferradina	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
10	Cultural Leonesa	4	2	1	1	2	1	7
11	Deportivo Fabril	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
12	Real Aviles CF	4	1	1	2	5	5	4
13	CD Coria	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
14	Zamora CF	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
15	Barakaldo	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
16	Merida	4	1	0	3	4	6	3
17	CD Extremadura	4	1	0	3	2	4	3
18	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	4	1	0	3	7	11	3
19	Arenas Club de Getxo	4	0	1	3	3	10	1
20	UD Ourense	4	0	0	4	1	9	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pontevedra	Ponferradina
Athletic Bilbao B	1-3 L	1-0 W
Real Aviles CF	1-0 W	3-1 W
Tenerife	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ponferradina (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pontevedra

WDDWLDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
12/09	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	1-3	8	4	L
05/09	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	4-1	3	4	W
28/08	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	4	9	W
23/05	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-2	6	9	D
17/05	Tenerife Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
09/05	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	4-0	7	2	W
02/05	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/04	Celta Fortuna Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
19/04	CD Guadalajara Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	4-1	7	3	W

Ponferradina

WDLWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
13/09	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
04/09	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
29/08	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
23/05	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
17/05	CD Arenteiro Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
09/05	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	3-1	2	10	W
02/05	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-3	2	10	L
25/04	Tenerife Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
19/04	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pontevedra win (39%). Probabilities: Pontevedra 39%, draw 29%, Ponferradina 31%.

How many goals are expected in Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Pontevedra 1.44 · Ponferradina 1.26), with a 60% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.