Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 03/10, 16:30

Prediction: Barakaldo vs Arenas Club de Getxo

Team pages: Barakaldo · Arenas Club de Getxo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Barakaldo2.14

Arenas Club de Getxo0.92

1X2

64% 22% 14%

Barakaldo Draw Arenas Club de Getxo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Barakaldo 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDLWLD

Arenas Club de Getxo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLDDWDLLLL

Head-to-head

Barakaldo 3–2–1 Arenas Club de Getxo (6 last)

Arenas Club de Getxo2-1Barakaldo
Barakaldo2-1Arenas Club de Getxo
Arenas Club de Getxo0-0Barakaldo
Barakaldo1-0Arenas Club de Getxo
Arenas Club de Getxo1-1Barakaldo
Arenas Club de Getxo1-3Barakaldo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barakaldo 1497 · Arenas Club de Getxo 1459

	Barakaldo	Draw	Arenas Club de Getxo
Our model	64%	21%	14%
Market	64%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Barakaldo: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barakaldo	Arenas Club de Getxo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6.7	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.10

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.95

2 (+1.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:22 +8’	1.40	4.10	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barakaldo 3–2–1 Arenas Club de Getxo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Arenas Club de Getxo	2-1 HT 2-0	Barakaldo
12/09/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Barakaldo	2-1 HT 0-0	Arenas Club de Getxo
09/08/25 Europe Friendlies	Arenas Club de Getxo	0-0 HT 0-0	Barakaldo
21/01/24 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	Barakaldo	1-0 HT 0-0	Arenas Club de Getxo
09/09/23 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 2	Arenas Club de Getxo	1-1 HT 0-0	Barakaldo
05/08/23 Europe Friendlies	Arenas Club de Getxo	1-3 HT 0-1	Barakaldo

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UD Logrones	5	4	1	0	13	6	13
2	Lugo	5	4	1	0	7	2	13
3	Athletic Bilbao B	5	3	2	0	11	5	11
4	Cacereno	5	3	2	0	6	1	11
5	Mirandes	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
6	Pontevedra	5	2	2	1	8	6	8
7	Deportivo Fabril	5	2	2	1	7	5	8
8	Cultural Leonesa	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
8	Ponferradina	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
10	Real Unión	5	2	1	2	12	10	7
11	Zamora CF	5	2	1	2	6	6	7
12	Racing Ferrol	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
13	Real Aviles CF	5	1	2	2	8	8	5
14	CD Coria	5	1	2	2	8	9	5
15	Barakaldo	5	1	2	2	5	8	5
16	CD Extremadura	5	1	0	4	2	5	3
17	Merida	5	1	0	4	7	11	3
18	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	5	1	0	4	7	12	3
19	UD Ourense	5	0	1	4	1	9	1
20	Arenas Club de Getxo	5	0	1	4	3	13	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barakaldo	Arenas Club de Getxo
Racing Ferrol	0-1 L	1-1 D
Merida	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Arenas Club de Getxo (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barakaldo

WLWWDDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	3-3	6	6	D
19/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
11/09	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-4	7	6	L
30/08	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
23/05	Celta Fortuna Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	13	3	D
17/05	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
09/05	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
01/05	Tenerife Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
25/04	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	11	8	W

Arenas Club de Getxo

WLDDWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-3	2	3	L
20/09	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-3	3	6	L
13/09	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
05/09	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-4	3	4	L
29/08	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
23/05	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
17/05	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-2	3-3	5	7	D
08/05	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
02/05	CF Talavera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	5	7	L
24/04	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-0	10	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barakaldo vs Arenas Club de Getxo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barakaldo win (64%). Probabilities: Barakaldo 64%, draw 22%, Arenas Club de Getxo 14%.

How many goals are expected in Barakaldo vs Arenas Club de Getxo?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Barakaldo 2.14 · Arenas Club de Getxo 0.92), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Barakaldo vs Arenas Club de Getxo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.