Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 04/10, 18:45

Prediction: Merida vs Cacereno

Team pages: Merida · Cacereno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Merida1.29

Cacereno1.09

1X2

40% 29% 30%

Merida Draw Cacereno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Merida 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLDWWLLLL

Cacereno 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWDWWD

Head-to-head

Merida 3–1–2 Cacereno (6 last)

Merida1-0Cacereno
Cacereno2-1Merida
Cacereno0-0Merida
Cacereno1-2Merida
Merida0-1Cacereno
Cacereno0-3Merida

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Merida 1439 · Cacereno 1538

	Merida	Draw	Cacereno
Our model	40%	30%	30%
Market	41%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cacereno (rating 1439 vs 1538).
H2H favours Merida: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Merida	Cacereno
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.7	1.9 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.5	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:40 +4’	2.20	3.10	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Merida 3–1–2 Cacereno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Merida	1-0 HT 1-0	Cacereno
20/09/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Cacereno	2-1 HT 0-0	Merida
12/08/23 Europe Friendlies	Cacereno	0-0 HT 0-0	Merida
24/04/22 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	Cacereno	1-2 HT 0-2	Merida
05/12/21 Spain Segunda Division RFEF Group 4	Merida	0-1 HT 0-1	Cacereno
22/08/21 Europe Friendlies	Cacereno	0-3 HT 0-1	Merida

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UD Logrones	5	4	1	0	13	6	13
2	Lugo	5	4	1	0	7	2	13
3	Athletic Bilbao B	5	3	2	0	11	5	11
4	Cacereno	5	3	2	0	6	1	11
5	Mirandes	5	3	1	1	9	6	10
6	Pontevedra	5	2	2	1	8	6	8
7	Deportivo Fabril	5	2	2	1	7	5	8
8	Cultural Leonesa	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
8	Ponferradina	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
10	Real Unión	5	2	1	2	12	10	7
11	Zamora CF	5	2	1	2	6	6	7
12	Racing Ferrol	5	2	1	2	5	5	7
13	Real Aviles CF	5	1	2	2	8	8	5
14	CD Coria	5	1	2	2	8	9	5
15	Barakaldo	5	1	2	2	5	8	5
16	CD Extremadura	5	1	0	4	2	5	3
17	Merida	5	1	0	4	7	11	3
18	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	5	1	0	4	7	12	3
19	UD Ourense	5	0	1	4	1	9	1
20	Arenas Club de Getxo	5	0	1	4	3	13	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Merida	Cacereno
Mirandes	3-4 L	1-0 W
Cultural Leonesa	0-1 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Fabril	1-0 W	1-1 D
Arenas Club de Getxo	0-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cacereno (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Merida

LLLDWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	3-5	5	7	L
19/09	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
12/09	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-2	3-4	6	7	L
06/09	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
29/08	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
23/05	Osasuna B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-1	4	7	W
17/05	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
09/05	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
03/05	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	0-2	6	8	L
24/04	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-2	5	3	L

Cacereno

DWWWLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
20/09	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	3-0	3	6	W
13/09	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
06/09	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
28/08	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
23/05	CF Talavera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
17/05	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-1	2	1	W
09/05	Real Madrid B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	4-1	3	5	W
03/05	CD Arenteiro Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	4-0	3	5	W
24/04	CD Guadalajara Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Merida vs Cacereno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Merida win (40%). Probabilities: Merida 40%, draw 29%, Cacereno 30%.

How many goals are expected in Merida vs Cacereno?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Merida 1.29 · Cacereno 1.09), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Merida vs Cacereno?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.