Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 02/10, 19:00
Prediction: Real Aviles CF vs Lugo
Team pages: Real Aviles CF · Lugo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Real Aviles CF1.35
Lugo1.17
1X2
Real Aviles CF
Draw
Lugo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Real Aviles CF
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Lugo
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Real Aviles CF
1–1–2
Lugo
(4 last)
- Real Aviles CF1-2Lugo
- Lugo0-0Real Aviles CF
- Real Aviles CF1-0Lugo
- Real Aviles CF0-5Lugo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Real Aviles CF 1482 · Lugo 1589
| Real Aviles CF | Draw | Lugo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lugo (rating 1482 vs 1589).
- H2H favours Lugo: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 11.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Real Aviles CF | Lugo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.1 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.5 | 1.2 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.1 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Aviles CF 1–1–2 Lugo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 | Real Aviles CF | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Lugo |
| 06/09/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 | Lugo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Real Aviles CF |
| 19/08/23 Europe Friendlies | Real Aviles CF | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lugo |
| 24/07/19 Europe Friendlies | Real Aviles CF | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Lugo |
Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Logrones | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Lugo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Athletic Bilbao B | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 11 |
| 4 | Cacereno | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Mirandes | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Pontevedra | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Deportivo Fabril | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| 8 | Cultural Leonesa | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Ponferradina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | Real Unión | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 7 |
| 11 | Zamora CF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 12 | Racing Ferrol | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Aviles CF | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| 14 | CD Coria | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 16 | CD Extremadura | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Merida | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 3 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 3 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| 20 | Arenas Club de Getxo | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Real Aviles CF | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| Barakaldo | 3-3 D | 0-3 L |
| CD Coria | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Unionistas de Salamanca CF | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Ponferradina | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Racing Ferrol | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Lugo (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Real Aviles CF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
2-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 19/09 | CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 28/08 | Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 23/05 | Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 02/05 | CD Guadalajara Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 26/04 | Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
Lugo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 20/09 | Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 04/09 | Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | CD Arenteiro Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Celta Fortuna Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Real Aviles CF vs Lugo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Aviles CF win (40%). Probabilities: Real Aviles CF 40%, draw 29%, Lugo 31%.
How many goals are expected in Real Aviles CF vs Lugo?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Real Aviles CF 1.35 · Lugo 1.17), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Real Aviles CF vs Lugo?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.