Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 27/09, 12:00

Prediction: Barakaldo vs Real Aviles CF

Team pages: Barakaldo · Real Aviles CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Barakaldo1.51

Real Aviles CF1.11

1X2

46% 28% 27%

Barakaldo Draw Real Aviles CF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Barakaldo 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDDLWL

Real Aviles CF 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDDLLDLLWD

Head-to-head

Barakaldo 2–2 Real Aviles CF (4 last)

Real Aviles CF1-4Barakaldo
Barakaldo1-2Real Aviles CF
Barakaldo1-4Real Aviles CF
Real Aviles CF0-1Barakaldo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Barakaldo 1493 · Real Aviles CF 1491

	Barakaldo	Draw	Real Aviles CF
Our model	45%	28%	27%
Market	46%	27%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Barakaldo	Real Aviles CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.5	1.7 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.30

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.95▲	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30
2	3.80 → 3.30▼	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:23 +3’	1.80	3.40	3.80
19:26 +5’	1.95▲	3.30▼	3.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Barakaldo 2–0–2 Real Aviles CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Real Aviles CF	1-4 HT 1-2	Barakaldo
07/12/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Barakaldo	1-2 HT 1-2	Real Aviles CF
17/08/24 Europe Friendlies	Barakaldo	1-4 HT 0-2	Real Aviles CF
10/09/14 Spain Copa del Rey	Real Aviles CF	0-1 HT 0-1	Barakaldo

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UD Logrones	4	3	1	0	8	3	10
2	Cacereno	4	3	1	0	6	1	10
3	Lugo	4	3	1	0	6	2	10
4	Athletic Bilbao B	4	2	2	0	8	5	8
5	Real Unión	4	2	1	1	12	8	7
6	Mirandes	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
7	Pontevedra	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
8	Racing Ferrol	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
9	Ponferradina	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
10	Cultural Leonesa	4	2	1	1	2	1	7
11	Deportivo Fabril	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
12	Real Aviles CF	4	1	1	2	5	5	4
13	CD Coria	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
14	Zamora CF	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
15	Barakaldo	4	1	1	2	2	5	4
16	Merida	4	1	0	3	4	6	3
17	CD Extremadura	4	1	0	3	2	4	3
18	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	4	1	0	3	7	11	3
19	Arenas Club de Getxo	4	0	1	3	3	10	1
20	UD Ourense	4	0	0	4	1	9	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Barakaldo	Real Aviles CF
Racing Ferrol	0-1 L	2-2 D
CD Coria	1-4 L	1-1 D
Ponferradina	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Aviles CF (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Barakaldo

LWLWWDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
11/09	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-4	7	6	L
30/08	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
23/05	Celta Fortuna Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	13	3	D
17/05	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
09/05	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
01/05	Tenerife Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-2	5	4	L
25/04	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	11	8	W
19/04	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	4	4	L

Real Aviles CF

DDDLLDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
12/09	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
06/09	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
28/08	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	4	9	L
23/05	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-2	1	9	D
17/05	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-4	4	3	L
09/05	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-3	3	10	L
02/05	CD Guadalajara Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-2	5	9	D
26/04	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
18/04	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Barakaldo vs Real Aviles CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Barakaldo win (46%). Probabilities: Barakaldo 46%, draw 28%, Real Aviles CF 27%.

How many goals are expected in Barakaldo vs Real Aviles CF?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Barakaldo 1.51 · Real Aviles CF 1.11), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Barakaldo vs Real Aviles CF?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.