Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 26/09, 16:30
Prediction: Lugo vs Racing Ferrol
Team pages: Lugo · Racing Ferrol
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.88Total
Lugo1.03
Racing Ferrol0.85
1X2
Lugo
Draw
Racing Ferrol
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Lugo
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Racing Ferrol
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lugo
3–2–0
Racing Ferrol
(5 last)
- Racing Ferrol1-1Lugo
- Lugo2-1Racing Ferrol
- Racing Ferrol1-1Lugo
- Lugo1-0Racing Ferrol
- Racing Ferrol0-3Lugo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lugo 1578 · Racing Ferrol 1524
| Lugo | Draw | Racing Ferrol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 34% | 28% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lugo (rating 1578 vs 1524).
- H2H favours Lugo: 3-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lugo | Racing Ferrol | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.2 | 0.2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.4 | 2.9 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.4 | 5.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugo 3–2–0 Racing Ferrol
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 | Racing Ferrol | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Lugo |
| 21/09/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 | Lugo | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Racing Ferrol |
| 30/12/22 Europe Friendlies | Racing Ferrol | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Lugo |
| 06/08/22 Europe Friendlies | Lugo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Racing Ferrol |
| 30/07/17 Europe Friendlies | Racing Ferrol | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Lugo |
Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Logrones | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Cacereno | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Lugo | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Athletic Bilbao B | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 5 | Real Unión | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 7 |
| 6 | Mirandes | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 7 | Pontevedra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Racing Ferrol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Cultural Leonesa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Deportivo Fabril | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Real Aviles CF | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | CD Coria | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | Zamora CF | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| 16 | Merida | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 17 | CD Extremadura | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 3 |
| 19 | Arenas Club de Getxo | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| 20 | UD Ourense | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lugo | Racing Ferrol |
|---|---|---|
| Unionistas de Salamanca CF | 3-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Barakaldo | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lugo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 13/09 | CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 04/09 | Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 23/05 | CD Arenteiro Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Celta Fortuna Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 19/04 | CF Talavera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | D |
Racing Ferrol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Osasuna B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 08/05 | Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 02/05 | Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 13 | 4 | D |
| 19/04 | Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lugo win (39%). Probabilities: Lugo 39%, draw 32%, Racing Ferrol 29%.
How many goals are expected in Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
The model expects 1.88 goals (Lugo 1.03 · Racing Ferrol 0.85), with a 59% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lugo vs Racing Ferrol?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.