Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 24/10, 18:45

Prediction: Ponferradina vs Barakaldo

Team pages: Ponferradina · Barakaldo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.88Total

Ponferradina1.08

Barakaldo0.79

1X2

42% 32% 26%

Ponferradina Draw Barakaldo

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Ponferradina 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDLWDWLD

Barakaldo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLWLDDLW

Head-to-head

Ponferradina 2–1–1 Barakaldo (4 last)

Ponferradina1-0Barakaldo
Barakaldo0-0Ponferradina
Ponferradina0-1Barakaldo
Barakaldo0-1Ponferradina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ponferradina 1518 · Barakaldo 1477

	Ponferradina	Draw	Barakaldo
Our model	41%	34%	25%
Market	43%	30%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 1.88 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ponferradina (rating 1518 vs 1477).
H2H favours Ponferradina: 2-1-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ponferradina	Barakaldo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.6	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4	3.4 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	4.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.00

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:16 +9’	2.10	3.00	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ponferradina 2–1–1 Barakaldo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Ponferradina	1-0 HT 1-0	Barakaldo
09/11/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Barakaldo	0-0 HT 0-0	Ponferradina
07/02/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Ponferradina	0-1 HT 0-1	Barakaldo
17/11/24 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Barakaldo	0-1 HT 0-1	Ponferradina

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	8	7	1	0	15	4	22
2	UD Logrones	8	5	2	1	17	11	17
3	Racing Ferrol	8	5	1	2	9	5	16
4	Merida	8	4	0	4	15	12	12
5	Athletic Bilbao B	8	3	3	2	13	10	12
6	Zamora CF	8	3	3	2	10	8	12
7	Cultural Leonesa	8	3	3	2	9	7	12
8	Cacereno	8	3	3	2	7	5	12
9	Ponferradina	8	3	3	2	6	6	12
10	Real Aviles CF	8	3	2	3	14	10	11
11	Mirandes	8	3	2	3	10	10	11
11	Pontevedra	8	3	2	3	10	10	11
13	Real Unión	8	2	4	2	15	13	10
14	CD Extremadura	8	3	1	4	11	10	10
15	Barakaldo	8	2	3	3	8	10	9
16	Deportivo Fabril	8	2	2	4	8	11	8
17	CD Coria	8	2	2	4	12	16	8
18	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	8	2	1	5	10	14	7
19	UD Ourense	8	1	2	5	3	13	5
20	Arenas Club de Getxo	8	0	2	6	5	22	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ponferradina	Barakaldo
Real Aviles CF	0-2 L	3-3 D
Mirandes	1-0 W	2-0 W
UD Ourense	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Barakaldo (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ponferradina

WWWDLWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
11/10	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-2	5	8	L
04/10	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
27/09	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
19/09	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
13/09	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
04/09	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
29/08	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
23/05	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
17/05	CD Arenteiro Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	7	7	W

Barakaldo

WDDLWLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	14	9	W
10/10	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
03/10	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	4	7	D
27/09	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-2	3-3	6	6	D
19/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
11/09	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-4	7	6	L
30/08	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
23/05	Celta Fortuna Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	13	3	D
17/05	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	4-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ponferradina win (42%). Probabilities: Ponferradina 42%, draw 32%, Barakaldo 26%.

How many goals are expected in Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?

The model expects 1.88 goals (Ponferradina 1.08 · Barakaldo 0.79), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.