Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 01/11, 18:45

Prediction: Lugo vs Merida

Team pages: Lugo · Merida

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Lugo1.32

Merida1.02

1X2

43% 29% 28%

Lugo Draw Merida

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Lugo 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWWWL

Merida 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWWWD

Head-to-head

Lugo 2–0 Merida (2 last)

Merida0-2Lugo
Lugo1-0Merida

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lugo 1600 · Merida 1500

	Lugo	Draw	Merida
Our model	42%	30%	27%
Market	44%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lugo (rating 1600 vs 1500).
H2H favours Lugo: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lugo	Merida
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.1	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.6	5.3 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.25

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:57 +10’	2.05	3.25	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugo 2–0–0 Merida

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Merida	0-2 HT 0-2	Lugo
03/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Lugo	1-0 HT 1-0	Merida

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	9	7	1	1	16	8	22
2	UD Logrones	9	6	2	1	20	12	20
3	Racing Ferrol	9	5	1	3	9	7	16
4	Cacereno	9	4	3	2	8	5	15
5	Mirandes	9	4	2	3	12	10	14
6	Pontevedra	9	4	2	3	12	11	14
7	CD Extremadura	9	4	1	4	16	10	13
8	Real Unión	9	3	4	2	19	14	13
9	Merida	9	4	1	4	15	12	13
10	Ponferradina	9	3	4	2	6	6	13
11	Athletic Bilbao B	9	3	3	3	14	12	12
12	Cultural Leonesa	9	3	3	3	10	9	12
12	Zamora CF	9	3	3	3	10	9	12
14	Real Aviles CF	9	3	2	4	15	13	11
15	Barakaldo	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
16	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	9	3	1	5	12	15	10
17	CD Coria	9	2	3	4	12	16	9
18	Deportivo Fabril	9	2	2	5	8	16	8
19	UD Ourense	9	1	2	6	3	15	5
20	Arenas Club de Getxo	9	1	2	6	7	22	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lugo	Merida
Deportivo Fabril	3-0 W	1-0 W
UD Logrones	3-1 W	3-5 L
CD Coria	1-0 W	0-0 D
Ponferradina	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lugo (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lugo

DWDWWWWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-4	5	4	L
17/10	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
12/10	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-1	3-1	5	7	W
02/10	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-1	6	0	W
26/09	Racing Ferrol Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
20/09	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	2-1	1	6	W
13/09	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
04/09	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
30/08	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-1	4	6	W
23/05	CD Arenteiro Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Merida

WWLLLLWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
18/10	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	4-0	7	7	W
11/10	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
04/10	Cacereno Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
27/09	UD Logrones Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	3-5	5	7	L
19/09	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
12/09	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-2	3-4	6	7	L
06/09	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
29/08	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
23/05	Osasuna B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-1	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lugo vs Merida?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lugo win (43%). Probabilities: Lugo 43%, draw 29%, Merida 28%.

How many goals are expected in Lugo vs Merida?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Lugo 1.32 · Merida 1.02), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lugo vs Merida?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.