Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 31/10, 16:30

Prediction: Racing Ferrol vs Ponferradina

Team pages: Racing Ferrol · Ponferradina

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.88Total

Racing Ferrol1.07

Ponferradina0.81

1X2

41% 32% 27%

Racing Ferrol Draw Ponferradina

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 57% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Racing Ferrol 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWWLWWWL

Ponferradina 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWDWLDD

Head-to-head

Racing Ferrol 2–1–3 Ponferradina (6 last)

Ponferradina3-0Racing Ferrol
Racing Ferrol2-1Ponferradina
Racing Ferrol1-1Ponferradina
Racing Ferrol2-0Ponferradina
Racing Ferrol1-2Ponferradina
Racing Ferrol1-2Ponferradina

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Racing Ferrol 1507 · Ponferradina 1503

	Racing Ferrol	Draw	Ponferradina
Our model	40%	34%	26%
Market	42%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 1.88 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ponferradina: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Racing Ferrol	Ponferradina
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	0.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6	1.9 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:41 +7’	2.15	3.00	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Racing Ferrol 2–1–3 Ponferradina

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Ponferradina	3-0 HT 2-0	Racing Ferrol
14/09/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Racing Ferrol	2-1 HT 0-0	Ponferradina
16/08/25 Europe Friendlies	Racing Ferrol	1-1 HT 0-1	Ponferradina
26/07/23 Europe Friendlies	Racing Ferrol	2-0 HT 1-0	Ponferradina
24/07/22 Europe Friendlies	Racing Ferrol	1-2 HT 1-0	Ponferradina
31/07/19 Europe Friendlies	Racing Ferrol	1-2 HT 1-1	Ponferradina

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	9	7	1	1	16	8	22
2	UD Logrones	9	6	2	1	20	12	20
3	Racing Ferrol	9	5	1	3	9	7	16
4	Cacereno	9	4	3	2	8	5	15
5	Mirandes	9	4	2	3	12	10	14
6	Pontevedra	9	4	2	3	12	11	14
7	CD Extremadura	9	4	1	4	16	10	13
8	Real Unión	9	3	4	2	19	14	13
9	Merida	9	4	1	4	15	12	13
10	Ponferradina	9	3	4	2	6	6	13
11	Athletic Bilbao B	9	3	3	3	14	12	12
12	Cultural Leonesa	9	3	3	3	10	9	12
12	Zamora CF	9	3	3	3	10	9	12
14	Real Aviles CF	9	3	2	4	15	13	11
15	Barakaldo	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
16	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	9	3	1	5	12	15	10
17	CD Coria	9	2	3	4	12	16	9
18	Deportivo Fabril	9	2	2	5	8	16	8
19	UD Ourense	9	1	2	6	3	15	5
20	Arenas Club de Getxo	9	1	2	6	7	22	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Racing Ferrol	Ponferradina
Mirandes	0-2 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Fabril	1-0 W	1-2 L
Pontevedra	2-0 W	1-1 D
Lugo	0-1 L	0-0 D
Barakaldo	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Racing Ferrol (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Racing Ferrol

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
17/10	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
10/10	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
03/10	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	2-0	6	6	W
26/09	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	13	7	L
19/09	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	10	5	W
13/09	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	3-2	3	2	W
06/09	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
29/08	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
23/05	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	2-3	6	5	L

Ponferradina

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Barakaldo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/10	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
11/10	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-2	5	8	L
04/10	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
27/09	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
19/09	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
13/09	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
04/09	Lugo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
29/08	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
23/05	Athletic Bilbao B Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Racing Ferrol vs Ponferradina?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Racing Ferrol win (41%). Probabilities: Racing Ferrol 41%, draw 32%, Ponferradina 27%.

How many goals are expected in Racing Ferrol vs Ponferradina?

The model expects 1.88 goals (Racing Ferrol 1.07 · Ponferradina 0.81), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Racing Ferrol vs Ponferradina?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.