Football · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · 31/10, 16:30

Prediction: Athletic Bilbao B vs Cacereno

Team pages: Athletic Bilbao B · Cacereno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Athletic Bilbao B1.33

Cacereno0.88

1X2

47% 29% 24%

Athletic Bilbao B Draw Cacereno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Athletic Bilbao B 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWLDLL

Cacereno 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Athletic Bilbao B 0–2 Cacereno (2 last)

Cacereno1-0Athletic Bilbao B
Athletic Bilbao B1-3Cacereno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Athletic Bilbao B 1498 · Cacereno 1508

	Athletic Bilbao B	Draw	Cacereno
Our model	46%	31%	23%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cacereno: 2-0-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Athletic Bilbao B	Cacereno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	0.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.5	2.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:41 +7’	1.85	3.30	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Athletic Bilbao B 0–0–2 Cacereno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Cacereno	1-0 HT 1-0	Athletic Bilbao B
19/10/25 Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	Athletic Bilbao B	1-3 HT 0-2	Cacereno

Standings · Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1 · Primera Federacion 26/27, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugo	9	7	1	1	16	8	22
2	UD Logrones	9	6	2	1	20	12	20
3	Racing Ferrol	9	5	1	3	9	7	16
4	Cacereno	9	4	3	2	8	5	15
5	Mirandes	9	4	2	3	12	10	14
6	Pontevedra	9	4	2	3	12	11	14
7	CD Extremadura	9	4	1	4	16	10	13
8	Real Unión	9	3	4	2	19	14	13
9	Merida	9	4	1	4	15	12	13
10	Ponferradina	9	3	4	2	6	6	13
11	Athletic Bilbao B	9	3	3	3	14	12	12
12	Cultural Leonesa	9	3	3	3	10	9	12
12	Zamora CF	9	3	3	3	10	9	12
14	Real Aviles CF	9	3	2	4	15	13	11
15	Barakaldo	9	2	4	3	8	10	10
16	Unionistas de Salamanca CF	9	3	1	5	12	15	10
17	CD Coria	9	2	3	4	12	16	9
18	Deportivo Fabril	9	2	2	5	8	16	8
19	UD Ourense	9	1	2	6	3	15	5
20	Arenas Club de Getxo	9	1	2	6	7	22	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Athletic Bilbao B	Cacereno
Unionistas de Salamanca CF	1-2 L	1-1 D
Arenas Club de Getxo	3-0 W	3-0 W
Deportivo Fabril	2-2 D	1-1 D
Pontevedra	3-1 W	0-1 L
Zamora CF	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cacereno (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Athletic Bilbao B

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
18/10	CD Coria Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
11/10	Real Unión Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/10	CD Extremadura Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-2	1-3	8	7	L
26/09	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
20/09	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
12/09	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
06/09	Real Aviles CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
29/08	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
23/05	Ponferradina Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	4	4	L

Cacereno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Zamora CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
18/10	Pontevedra Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-1	0-1	8	8	L
10/10	Unionistas de Salamanca CF Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
04/10	Merida Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-2	12	1	L
27/09	UD Ourense Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
20/09	Arenas Club de Getxo Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	3-0	3	6	W
13/09	Cultural Leonesa Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
06/09	Deportivo Fabril Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
28/08	Mirandes Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
23/05	CF Talavera Spain Primera Division RFEF Group 1	1-0	1-2	1	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Athletic Bilbao B vs Cacereno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Athletic Bilbao B win (47%). Probabilities: Athletic Bilbao B 47%, draw 29%, Cacereno 24%.

How many goals are expected in Athletic Bilbao B vs Cacereno?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Athletic Bilbao B 1.33 · Cacereno 0.88), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Athletic Bilbao B vs Cacereno?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.